What constitutes a promising technology in the era of open innovation? An investigation of patent potential from multiple perspectives

Abstract

Identifying promising technologies using patents has long been a popular topic in the technology forecasting field. In relevant studies, promising technology has been defined as patents having significant impacts on subsequent patents; thus, such patents were identified based on their expected citation frequencies. However, within the paradigm of open innovation, various perspectives, such as commercial and technological impacts, need to be considered in assessing promising technology. Therefore, this study aims to investigate patent information that can be used to assess a patent's potential as a promising technology in terms of three criteria: technological impact, standardization, and licensing. Here, the focus was on ex ante information, a set of information provided at the point of application, on which seven indicators showing the invention characteristics were designed. Then, the telecommunications sector was selected as the target industry, and we collected data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office. The research findings are expected to contribute to the existing body of knowledge on patent analysis by offering a broader view of promising patents. Practically, these findings can suggest valuable implications for decision makers in charge of R&D planning in the telecommunications sector within the paradigm of open innovation.