What a Cold War crisis over Taiwan could tell us about China-Russia relations today

Abstract

ABSTRACT The crisis today in Ukraine between Russia and the West has uncanny parallels to an often-overlooked Cold War conflict between China, the Soviet Union, and the United States known as “The Taiwan Straits Crisis of 1958” or “The Second Taiwan Straits Crisis” – which some analysts have referred to as the first serious nuclear crisis. In addition to worries about nuclear escalation, there are other similarities: Russia and China viewed themselves, then and now, as exceptional nations, superior to a decadent, materialist America thought to be in decline – but still carrying dangerous military clout. Faced with a strong West, the leaders of China and Russia in the 1950s tried to present a united, Sino-Russian public front, even if their two countries were fundamentally split over the issues that led to the Taiwan Straits Crisis. If the past is any guide, then despite economic pressure from the United States and the loss of international reputation, China is unlikely to ever join the US-led sanctions against Russia. As the conflict deepens, both dictators’ assessments of the strength and intentions of the United States might begin to diverge, opening a way for their rivals to drive a wedge between them.