Abstract
Eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) is increasing in density in the eastern United States and expanding in range to the west, while western Juniperus species also are increasing and expanding, creating the potential for a novel assemblage. I estimated range expansion and intersection by comparing recent USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys (mean year = 2009) to the oldest available surveys (mean year = 1981), with adjustments for sampling changes, and predicted climate envelopes during the following year ranges: 1500–1599, 1800–1849, 1850–1899, 1900–1949, and 1960–1989. During approximately 28 years, eastern redcedar range expanded by about 54 million ha (based on ≥0.5% of total stems ≥12.7 cm in diameter in ecological subsections). Combined range of western species of juniper did not expand. Range intersection of eastern redcedar and western Juniperus species totaled 200,000 km2 and increased by 31,600 km2 over time, representing a novel assemblage of eastern and western species. Predicted ranges during the other time intervals were 94% to 98% of predicted area during 1960–1989, suggesting major climate conditions have been suitable for centuries. The southern western Juniperus species and Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum Sarg.) have the greatest potential for intersection with eastern redcedar, whereas eastern redcedar may have concluded westward expansion.
Highlights
During the past century, native tree and shrub species have changed in density within existing ranges and changed in distribution within both forested ecosystems and nonforested ecosystems [1,2,3]
Juniperus species according to ing to Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys (FIA) surveys, representing 42% of western Juniperus species percent composition
Eastern redcedar has increased in relative density and expanded in range, one of the great range expansions in the United States during the past few decades, according to adjusted FIA surveys
Summary
Native tree and shrub species have changed in density within existing ranges and changed in distribution within both forested ecosystems and nonforested ecosystems [1,2,3]. Spread of native woody vegetation is described as encroachment, densification, thicketization, and woodification, evoking alteration in the characteristics and condition of ecosystems that threaten native biodiversity [4]. Changes in density within existing or novel ranges occur because of changes in land use, natural disturbances, and climate change among other factors. Eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) is a native tree species of the eastern United. Eastern redcedar has increased in density within eastern forests, doubling in percentage of all trees in the central eastern and northern southeastern regions [5]. Eastern redcedar is expanding westward into the Great Plains grasslands of the central U.S Eastern redcedar received an assist in migration into the central grasslands, as this species was, and continues to be, planted for windbreaks and fence rows, and is dispersed widely by birds and small mammals [6,7]
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