Weathering the storm: extreme weather's impact on international financial markets

The extreme marine weather is a very vital factor and has important implications for of marine economic development. However, there is a lack of systematic and quantitative analyses of its impact on the marine economic development. Here, we study the impacts of extreme marine weather on marine economic development of 11 coastal regions in China, using the dynamic panel model. We found that extreme marine weather exerts a significant negative impact on the marine economic development. The marine scientific and technological innovation promotes marine economic development in a prominent manner. The marine scientific and technological innovation slows down the unfavorable impact of extreme marine weather on the marine economy. After considering different industries for marine economic development and heterogeneity, we found that extreme marine weather and marine scientific and technological innovation have a great impact on marine economic development in the tertiary industry and the areas with high development concerning marine economy level, while deliver a small impact on the marine economic development in the primary industry and the areas low development level. This paper empirically studies the relationship between the two variables of marine extreme weather and marine science and technology innovation and its impact on marine economic development, enriches the research perspective of extreme weather on marine economic development, and provides new method evidence for improving the level of marine scientific and technological innovation and promoting the development of marine economy.

Climate change constitutes a rising challenge to the agricultural base of developing countries. Most of the literature has focused on the impact of changes in the means of weather variables on mean changes in production and has found very little impact of weather upon agricultural production. Instead, we focus on the relationship between extreme events in weather and extreme losses in crop production. Indeed, extreme events are of the greatest interest for scholars and policy makers only when they carry extraordinary negative effects. We build on this idea and for the first time, we adopt a conditional dependence model for multivariate extreme values to understand the impact of extreme weather on agricultural production. Specifically, we look at the probability that an extreme event drastically reduces the harvest of any of the major crops. This analysis, which is run on data for six different crops and four different weather variables in a vast array of countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, shows that extremes in weather and yield losses of major staples are associated events. We find a high heterogeneity across both countries and crops and we are able to predict per country and per crop the risk of a yield reduction above 90% when extreme events occur. As policy implication, we can thus assess which major crop in each country is less resilient to climate shocks.

IntroductionThe increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant challenges to global food security, while the rapid development of the digital economy offers new pathways for mitigation.MethodsThis study constructs a Household Food Insecurity Experience Scale and a Digital Economy Indicator System based on survey data from 1,066 households in Sichuan Province, China, collected in 2024. Using publicly available extreme weather data from official websites, the research examines the impact of extreme weather on farmers’ food security across different terrains and explores the moderating role of the digital economy.ResultsContrary to conventional understanding, an increase in the extreme weather index was found to enhance household food security, with the effect varying by topography. In plain areas, where extreme weather events occur more frequently, households exhibited higher food security indices compared to non-plain areas. Specifically, a one-unit increase in the extreme weather index raised the food security index by 28.2% in plain areas but reduced it by 9.7% in non-plain areas. This divergence stems from differences in food access mechanisms shaped by terrain. In plains, extreme weather increased households’ reliance on external food purchases without significantly compromising self-sufficiency. In contrast, in non-plain areas, extreme weather substantially weakened self-sufficiency, while complex terrain further restricted access to external food supplies. Moreover, the digital economy effectively mitigated the negative impact of extreme weather on food security in topographically disadvantaged regions. Under its moderating influence, a one-unit increase in the extreme weather index amplified the food security improvement in plain areas from 28.2 to 68.9%, while in non-plain areas, extreme weather no longer exerted a significant effect. The underlying mechanism lies in the digital economy’s ability to enhance agricultural insurance participation, food production efficiency, and household income, collectively offsetting extreme weather’s adverse effects through increased earnings, reduced production costs, and better risk management.ConclusionThis study highlights the terrain-dependent effects of extreme weather on household food security and the moderating role of the digital economy. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to strategically leverage digital economy practices in narrowing regional disparities in food security.

Winter problems on mountain passes – Implications for cost-benefit analysis

Travel time reliability (TTR) is widely used to evaluate transportation system performance. Adverse weather condition is an important factor for affecting TTR, which can cause traffic congestions and crashes. Considering the traffic characteristics under different traffic conditions, it is necessary to explore the impact of adverse weather on TTR under different conditions. This study conducted an empirical travel time analysis using traffic data and weather data collected on Yanan corridor in Shanghai. The travel time distributions were analysed under different roadway types, weather, and time of day. Four typical scenarios (i.e., peak hours and off-peak hours on elevated expressway, peak hours and off-peak hours on arterial road) were considered in the TTR analysis. Four measures were calculated to evaluate the impact of adverse weather on TTR. The results indicated that the lognormal distribution is preferred for describing the travel time data. Compared with off-peak hours, the impact of adverse weather is more significant for peak hours. The travel time variability, buffer time index, misery index, and frequency of congestion increased by an average of 29%, 19%, 22%, and 63%, respectively, under the adverse weather condition. The findings in this study are useful for transportation management agencies to design traffic control strategies when adverse weather occurs.

This research investigated the impact of extreme weather on construction projects in Koronadal City. This study aimed to (1) identify the specific types of extreme weather events affecting construction projects; (2) measure the perceived level of impact of extreme weather on construction project timelines, budgetary allocations, labor productivity, equipment performance, and the overall project quality; (3) identify the potential health and safety hazards that might be encountered by individuals in the construction industry; and (4) measure the perceived level of effectiveness of the existing resilience measures employed by construction projects in Koronadal City to mitigate the adverse impact of extreme weather. Data were gathered using survey questionnaires from various respondents, including engineers and construction workers. A survey involving 177 respondents identified frequent weather-related challenges, with heat waves being the most prevalent, followed by heavy rainfall and less frequent occurrences of floods, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes. The study also explored the impact of extreme weather on the health and safety of construction personnel, highlighting issues such as physical strain, heat-related illnesses, and increased risks of accidents due to adverse weather. The findings indicate significant disruptions to project timelines and financial planning, with a considerable majority reporting that extreme weather necessitates project management and budgeting adjustments. Furthermore, the study reveals the effectiveness of current resilience measures, including providing adequate hydration and regular breaks in shaded areas and utilization of adequate rest breaks, rotating tasks, and employee wellness programs. This paper underscores the urgent need for enhanced adaptive measures and more efficient risk management strategies to ensure the safety and effectiveness of construction practices in regions vulnerable to extreme weather.

With the increasing access capacity of new energy, the impact of extreme weather on source–load is intensifying, threatening the balance of supply and demand in the power system. Aiming at the systemic risks caused by the uncertainty and volatility of the spatiotemporal distribution of source–load under extreme weather conditions, this paper proposes a new method for power system operation risk assessment considering the spatiotemporal distribution of source–load under extreme weather. Firstly, the influence of various meteorological factors on the output and load of new energy under extreme weather is studied, and the meteorological sensitivity model of source–load is established. Secondly, aiming at the problem of limited historical data of extreme weather scenarios, this paper proposes a method for generating annual operation scenarios of power systems considering extreme weather: using Gaussian process regression to reconstruct extreme weather scenarios, and fusing them into typical meteorological year series through quantile incremental mapping method, forming meteorological scenarios with both typical characteristics and extreme events, and combining the source-load model to obtain the system operation scenario. Thirdly, a new power system risk assessment model considering the impact of extreme weather is established, and the risk indicators such as load shedding, line overlimit, and wind and solar curtailment on a long-term scale are evaluated by using the daily operation simulation in the annual operation scenario of the system. Finally, the IEEE 24-node System is used to analyze the numerical examples, which show that the proposed method provides a quantitative risk assessment framework for the power system to cope with extreme weather, which is helpful to improve the resilience and reliability of the system.

The impact of weather on summer and winter exercise behaviors

Climate change has led to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, which impact critical infrastructure networks such as railway and power systems. Although infrastructure networks are interdependent, the analysis to understand the impact of weather events on infrastructure systems is usually performed in sector-specific silos. A methodology to examine how the same weather events affect different infrastructure sectors is presented, in order to understand cross-sectoral impact of extreme weather for interconnected regional infrastructure. Fragility modelling was used to examine the impact of temperature and rainfall on power and rail system failures using the West Midlands (in the UK) as a case study. The results demonstrated that the impact of temperature was broadly consistent across both infrastructure networks, showing less impact until specific upper and lower thresholds are passed; these thresholds were found to be similar for the different infrastructure networks evaluated, but railway infrastructure was found to be impacted more by lower temperatures. A growing correlation between the number of faults on power and railway systems was also found for both rainfall and temperature, indicating the value in coordinating preparation and planning efforts. For infrastructure operators and owners, regional resilience forums and other decision makers, this study provides an approach to assess the regional impact of extreme weather across multiple infrastructure sectors. The results give useful insights to inform the allocation of resources in response to extreme weather events.

Extreme weather incident refers to high rainfall and strong winds have been speculated detriment on rice production. However, study on morphological and physiological mechanism, and its adaptation strategy on lodging are rarely reported. Thus, three experiments were conducted in Sawah Baru, Leuwikopo, and Lampung Province, Indonesia from January 2016 to June 2017. The results showed that extreme weather caused rice plant lodged on research area of 27.6% with production loss up to 11.89%. Morphology and physiological adaptations seemed important aspect in responses to extreme weather treatment. Biochemistry composition changed after lodging, especially fatty acid, terpene, alkane, and steroid. Lodging increased total biochemistry compound more than 48% of normal plant. Unlike marked production loss in the plot experiment, in the field, impact of extreme weather on reduction of rice production in Lampung Province was low, 1.03%. Shifting on rice production among agroclimates, minimized the impact of the extreme weather. It is likely that local ability to maintain annual production improvement by more than 5% through expansion of irrigated land, high yielding varieties and inputs subsidies were important factor as local strategy to adapt to extreme weather incident in Lampung. Keywords: lodging, stomata, photosynthesis, fatty acid, rice production

Extreme weather is an unexpected shock to the socioeconomic, which is likely to create climate risks in the process of global warming mitigation. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of extreme weather on prices of China's regional emission allowances, by using the panel data of four representative pilots in China (Beijing, Guangdong, Hubei, and Shanghai) from April 2014 to December 2020. The overall findings reveal that extreme weather, especially extreme heat, has a short-term lagged positive impact on carbon prices. In particular, the specific performance of extreme weather under different conditions is as follows: (i) carbon prices in tertiary-dominated markets are more sensitive to extreme weather, (ii) extreme heat has a positive effect on carbon prices while extreme cold does not, and (iii) the positive impact of extreme weather on carbon market is significantly stronger during compliance periods. This study provides the decision-making basis for emission traders to avoid losses caused by market fluctuations.

No form of economic activity is unaffected by climate change, which has emerged as a new risk factor impacting financial market stability and sustainable development. This study examines the impact of extreme weather on the stock returns of A-share listed companies in China. Utilizing a decade-long dataset, we construct monthly proportions of extreme high-temperature days and extreme humid days using a percentile comparison approach. The findings reveal a significant negative impact of extreme weather on stock returns. Specifically, each standard deviation increase in the monthly proportion of extreme high-temperature days and extreme humid days corresponds to a decrease in annualized returns by 0.09% and 0.15%, respectively. The mediation analysis suggests that extreme weather primarily affects stock returns through its influence on investor sentiment, impacting economic decision making, with minimal direct effects on corporate performance. Additionally, the sensitivity of stock returns to extreme weather varies notably among different types of companies. Larger, more profitable, and less risky firms show lower sensitivity to extreme weather. The impact is observed not only in heat-sensitive industries but also in non-heat-sensitive industries and remains significant even after excluding company announcement days. This study offers new insights and relevant recommendations for businesses and policymakers on sustainable development and financial stability.

Graphical Abstract Highlight Research 1. Fishermen continue fishing during extreme weather despite higher risks and reduced income to sustain their households. 2. Fishing decisions are influenced by education, engine power, and income potential, while experience and family size have less impact. 3. Fishing income declines significantly in extreme weather, with fuel costs being the main factor affecting profits. 4. Adaptation strategies include income diversification, adjusting fishing locations, and modifying gear to cope with climate uncertainties. 5. Policies should support climate adaptation, financial security, and alternative livelihoods for small-scale fishing communities. Abstract Extreme weather, attributed to global climate change, has altered the economic behaviour of small-scale fishing households in coastal areas. This study aims to analyse the economic behaviour of fishermen by investigating their fishing decisions using a logistic regression model using the maximum likelihood estimation method and their fishing business income through a normalized profit function. The research employed a quantitative research method with a survey approach conducted in the western coastal region of Barru Regency, Indonesia. The research sample consisted of 209 fishing households. The findings reveal that fishermen fish during extreme weather conditions to meet their household's economic needs, even though their earnings are diminished. Various factors, including the power of the boat engine, fishermen's age and education level, and the potential income from fishing, influence the decision to fish during extreme weather. Additionally, engine fuel prices, education levels, and the number of dependents in the family also impact fishers' income during extreme weather. The most important factor influencing the decision to fish in extreme weather conditions is formal education. Another factor that has the greatest impact on fishermen's income, both in the fishing season and during extreme weather, is the price of engine fuel. Fishermen can adapt to events triggered by extreme weather by implementing specific strategies. For instance, diversifying income by aquaculture production can be an alternative to sea fishing. Diversifying the types of fishing gear to accommodate different weather conditions is equally crucial. Fishing periods and locations can be adjusted to align with prevailing weather conditions. The contribution and significance of this research is to provide insight and understanding of the impact of extreme weather on fishing decisions and changes in the income of capture fishermen. This condition is the economic behaviour of small-scale fishing households in coastal areas when faced with extreme weather events.

The geographical location of Pontianak City, situated on the Equator, creates a high potential for hydrometeorological disasters, particularly extreme weather events such as whirlwinds. Based on the history of recurring events, it is essential to conduct this research to recommend disaster mitigation strategies based on hazard analysis and the Extreme Weather Disaster Class Index in Pontianak City. The data used are slope, land use, annual rainfall, and surface air temperature. These parameters are processed using the ArcGIS software. The results of the hazard analysis indicate that Pontianak City has a moderate level of hazard, covering an area of 5,191.46 ha, or 44.41% of the total area of Pontianak City. Sub-districts with medium-level potential areas are Pontianak Kota sub-district, with an area of 883.56 ha, West Pontianak sub-district, with an area of 836.97 ha, and South Pontianak sub-district, with an area of 761.59 ha. The non-structural disaster mitigation measures that need to be implemented to reduce the impact of extreme weather disasters include disaster risk assessment, enforcement of mitigation-based spatial plans, and community engagement. While structural mitigation can be achieved by strengthening building structures, these structures must utilize materials and construction techniques that are resistant to whirlwinds and enhance the strength of foundations, walls, and roofs. Making evacuation routes based on disaster mitigation and installing early warning equipment, such as Weather Information Display (WID), also needs to be done in an effort to minimize the impact of extreme whirlwind weather.

Although there has been some research on the impact of extreme weather on the number of ambulance call-out incidents, especially heat waves, there has been very little research on the...