Abstract
The extent to which prey space use actively minimizes predation risk continues to ignite controversy. Methodological reasons that have hindered consensus include inconsistent measurements of predation risk, biased spatiotemporal scales at which responses are measured and lack of robust null expectations.We addressed all three challenges in a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal responses of adult female elk (Cervus elaphus) to the risk of predation by wolves (Canis lupus) during winter in northern Yellowstone, USA.We quantified spatial overlap between the winter home ranges of GPS‐collared elk and three measures of predation risk: the intensity of wolf space use, the distribution of wolf‐killed elk and vegetation openness. We also assessed whether elk varied their use of areas characterized by more or less predation risk across hours of the day, and estimated encounter rates between simultaneous elk and wolf pack trajectories. We determined whether observed values were significantly lower than expected if elk movements were random with reference to predation risk using a null model approach.Although a small proportion of elk did show a tendency to minimize use of open vegetation at specific times of the day, overall we highlight a notable absence of spatiotemporal response by female elk to the risk of predation posed by wolves in northern Yellowstone.Our results suggest that predator–prey interactions may not always result in strong spatiotemporal patterns of avoidance.
Highlights
How, and to what extent, prey respond to the risk posed by predators are central questions in behavioural and community ecology (Sih, 1984, 1998)
Our study highlights a notable absence of spatiotemporal response by adult female elk to the risk of predation posed by wolves in the Northern Range
Home range selection by elk, both at the level of the entire Northern Range (NR) and that defined by philopatric behaviour, did not reflect proactive avoidance of wolves themselves nor of sites associated with a higher risk of being hunted successfully
Summary
To what extent, prey respond to the risk posed by predators are central questions in behavioural and community ecology (Sih, 1984, 1998). The majority of studies investigating movement and habitat selection responses by elk to the risk posed by wolves have revealed weak and/or inconsistent patterns (Forester et al, 2007; Fortin et al, 2005; Kohl et al, 2018; Mao et al, 2005; Middleton, Kauffman, McWhirter, Jimenez et al, 2013; Proffitt, Grigg, Hamlin, & Garrott, 2009; White et al, 2008) Despite this large body of research, which was drawn from multiple elk populations and relied primarily on movement data collected in the early years following wolf reintroduction, there remains a persistent contention that wolves have strong and consistent effects on elk space use (Beschta, Painter, & Ripple, 2018; Creel, 2018; Painter, Beschta, Larsen, & Ripple, 2018; Winnie & Creel, 2017). We implemented a set of null model formulations that represent expectations of prey movement in the absence of predation risk effects, while accounting for elevation constraints known to affect winter movements of elk
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