Weak signals analysis, knowledge management theory and systemic socio-cultural transitions

Abstract

The theoretical goal of this article is to narrow the gap between existing knowledge management theories and theories of weak signal analysis, and partly wild card analysis. The following theories and associated theoretical frameworks are discussed in the article: (1) Environmental Scanning Model, (2) Nonaka's Knowledge Management Theory, (3) Gammelgaard's and Ritter's Knowledge Retrieval Matrix, (4) Boisot's Information Space Model and (5) Vejlgaard's Diamond Shaped Trend Model. These various and nevertheless complementary perspectives are important for the further development of weak signal analysis, knowledge management theory and knowledge management practices in modern organisations as well as for anticipation and decision-making in policy-making arenas. There are still many theoretical and empirical challenges in these fields of scientific knowledge. A general conclusion is that all these frameworks provide interesting new perspectives for modern futures studies as such. Another conclusion is that there are various knowledge management (KM) and scanning frameworks available for implementing weak signal analysis. However, this paper, its observations and conclusions also imply that a more generalised approach to weak signal analysis needs to be developed and that modern KM theories should be used when developing new futures studies/foresight methodologies. According to the theoretical guidelines presented in this article, it is possible to make the suggestion that it would be wise to integrate the latest developments in weak signal analysis into knowledge management theory and vice versa.