Abstract
Malaysia is one of the countries that has been experiencing droughts caused by a warming climate. This study considered the Standard Index of Annual Precipitation (SIAP) and Standardized Water Storage Index (SWSI) to represent meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. The study area is the Langat River Basin, located in the central part of peninsular Malaysia. The analysis was done using rainfall and water level data over 30 years, from 1986 to 2016. Both of the indices were calculated in monthly scale, and two neural network-based models and two wavelet-based artificial neural network (W-ANN) models were developed for monthly droughts. The performance of the SIAP and SWSI models, in terms of the correlation coefficient (R), was 0.899 and 0.968, respectively. The application of a wavelet for preprocessing the raw data in the developed W-ANN models achieved higher correlation coefficients for most of the scenarios. This proves that the created model can predict meteorological and hydrological droughts very close to the observed values. Overall, this study helps us to understand the history of drought conditions over the past 30 years in the Langat River Basin. It further helps us to forecast drought and to assist in water resource management.
Highlights
Drought gradually happens with a lack of rainfall for a long period of time.This natural disaster is considered to be the most complex and least understood by many scientists.The impact of drought varies with respect to the affected areas
Where Standard Index of Annual Precipitation (SIAP) is the drought index, Pi is the annual precipitation, P is the mean of precipitation in the period, and PSD is the standard deviation of the period
Water 2018, x FOR the of 21 that the models for meteorological drought forecasting improved by 3.67% and 8.29%; for the shows the performance improvement the W‐artificial neural network (ANN)
Summary
Drought gradually happens with a lack of rainfall for a long period of time (i.e., months or years).This natural disaster is considered to be the most complex and least understood by many scientists.The impact of drought varies with respect to the affected areas. Drought gradually happens with a lack of rainfall for a long period of time (i.e., months or years). This natural disaster is considered to be the most complex and least understood by many scientists. In 1998, an El Nino-related drought severely hit the states of Selangor, Kedah, and Penang, which caused severe social and environmental impacts across the country [3]. This drought caused water rationing and hardship for 1.8 million residents of Kuala Lumpur and other towns in Klang Valley
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