Water Use Attribution Analysis and Prediction Based on the VIKOR Method and Grey Neural Network Model: A Case Study of Zhangye City

Abstract

Water consumption forecasting is a critical aspect of the increasingly strained water resources and sustainable water management processes. It is essential to explore the current status of water use patterns and future development directions in Zhangye City. In this study, 17 factors affecting water consumption in Zhangye City were selected to analyze changes in water consumption and to predict values from 2003 to 2022, utilizing the entropy weight–VIKOR model and the grey neural network model. The results indicate that agricultural water consumption and annual rainfall are the factors with the largest weights among the social and natural attribute indicators, respectively, significantly influencing water consumption in Zhangye City. As the proportions of water consumption for forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, livestock, urban public use, and ecological environment increase, while agricultural water consumption continues to decline, the overall water consumption trend in Zhangye City from 2003 to 2022 shows a positive trajectory. Each water consumption factor is tending toward greater balance, and the relationship between water supply and distribution is improving. The multi-year average relative error of the water consumption predictions for Zhangye City from 2003 to 2022 using the grey neural network model was 4.28%. Furthermore, the relative error values for annual predictions ranged from 0.60% to 5.00%, achieving an accuracy rate of 80.00%. This indicates a strong predictive performance. Ultimately, the model was used to predict a water consumption of 20.18 × 108 m3 in Zhangye City in 2027. The model can serve as a theoretical reference for short-term water consumption forecasting and for establishing a basin water resource allocation system in Zhangye City.