Abstract
The water-short adjacent basins of the Huang (Yellow), Huai and Hai Rivers in North China contain most of China's farmland. This study evaluates water vulnerability there as a function of sensitivity to climate change, people per unit flow, water use-to-availability ratio, and per capita water use. Three scenarios for 2030 are considered: (1) climate change without socio-economic changes; (2) socio-economic changes without climate change; and (3) both climate and socio-economic changes. Results show increases in the already precarious vulnerability, especially in the Hai river basin.
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