War, opium and economic growth in Afghanistan

Abstract

Listen

Translate article

ABSTRACT This study examines the association between armed conflict, opium production, and economic growth in Afghanistan from 1978 to 2022, emphasizing the complexities of its conflict-driven political economy. While war generated short-term artificial economic growth through foreign aid and military spending, it simultaneously fostered dependence on opium production. Escalating violence enabled the expansion of the opium economy, which became a vital survival strategy amid persistent political instability. Foreign military assistance, aimed at promoting stability, often prolonged conflict and reinforced illicit economic structures. The study further highlights the role of weak governance, measured by executive corruption, in driving economic decline and fostering illegal economic activities. These findings underscore the paradoxical effects of war and foreign intervention, generating artificial war-driven economy while entrenching long-term fragility. The study concludes by stressing the need for governance reform and a critical reassessment of foreign policy to disrupt Afghanistan's persistent cycles of violence, opium production, and economic vulnerability.