Vulnerability of nature-based tourism to climate variability and change: Case of Kariba resort town, Zimbabwe

Water sprays from an open fire hydrant in Brooklyn, New York, in the midst of a July 2010 heat wave that affected much of the eastern United States.In 2007 the New York City Department of Environmental Protection first teamed up with Alianza Dominicana, a Washington Heights community organization, to educate city residents about the appropriate use of fire hydrants and other ways

The <scp>SDGs</scp>: A change agenda shaping the future of business and humanity at large

Extreme weather events attributable to climate variability and change have increased in occurrence between 2010 and 2020. Annually, the socio-economic cost of such hydro-meteorological incidents has equally risen. This has exposed many businesses to the adverse effects of climate change. Given its reliance on weather and climate, nature-based tourism is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. This study examines the impact of climate change on nature-based tourism in Southern African national parks. Based on secondary archival data and infield experience spanning over five years, the study found that possible climate change-related severe weather events have adversely impacted nature-based tourism in protected areas in the Southern African region. Due to the vulnerability of nature-based tourism in protected areas to threats of droughts, floods, intense rainfall activity, wildfires and global warming, the study suggests that conservation must be rethought and remodelled if it is to remain sustainable in the face of climate change. It is recommended that the region should approach conservation from a climate change mitigation and adaptation point of view to ensure tourism resilience and sustainability. This should be anchored on empirical research for each destination.

Engaging with our responsibility to protect health from climate change.

A “lifeline out of the <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 crisis”? An ecofeminist critique of the European Green Deal

Despite overwhelming consensus among scientists about the reality of anthropogenic climate change (Bray, 2010; Oreskes, 2004), there remains significant reluctance on the part of citizens and politicians to take the action needed to address it. This resistance has been repeatedly identified in social research (Leiserowitz & Maibach, 2010; Leviston, Leitch, Greenhill, Leonard, & Walker, 2011; Lorenzoni & Pidgeon, 2006; McCright & Dunlap, 2011; Reser, Bradley, Glendon, Ellul, & Callaghan, 2012) and is mirrored by the lack of progress made by salient political summits (Rogelj et al., 2010). Perhaps as a response to this, scholarly journals and articles that are focused on climate change are growing. Natural scientists tell us that we know what needs to be done to avert dangerous climate change (IPCC, 2014), and economists tell us that delaying action in the short term will lead to much greater costs in the long term (Stern, 2007). Understanding public responses to climate change and developing solutions to catalyse action is a critical challenge for the social sciences, and we propose that the development and elaboration of a social psychology of climate change would be a cornerstone of such an approach. We do not make the claim that social psychology has all the answers but rather that the theories, models and research methods of social psychology can provide a powerful arsenal to complement the approaches of other disciplines. Researchers have already begun to apply social psychological theory and methods to the issue of climate change, and we highlight in the following sections examples of the insights that have flowed from this. We cannot assume, though, that our theories and findings will automatically generalise to the climate change context. As Moser (2010) has noted, there are unique dimensions to climate change that make it distinct from other environmental, risk and health issues: The causes of climate change are invisible to humans, the impacts are distal and it is complex and riddled with uncertainties. Modern urban humans are to some extent insulated from their physical environment, and the lags between the climate and social systems make it difficult for people to understand their role in influencing climate. These factors suggest the importance of developing a social psychology of climate change, empirically testing, integrating and refining existing theories and models to develop new frameworks. The notion that psychology can play a role in understanding and addressing climate change is not a new one. The American Psychological Association's Task Force on the interface between psychology and global climate change comprehensively detailed the ways in which psychological research can help to understand people's perceptions of the risks of climate change, the contribution of human behaviour to climate change, the psychosocial impacts of climate change, the ways in which people can adapt and cope with climate change and the psychological barriers that could limit climate change action (Swim et al., 2009, 2011). It is also not a new idea that social psychology can play an important role in understanding and addressing environmental problems and solutions (Clayton & Brook, 2005). Social psychology, specifically, has a long tradition of theory and research that is relevant to addressing key climate change questions. Attitudes, social cognition, persuasion and attitude change, social influence, and intragroup and intergroup behaviour, for instance, are fundamental foci for social psychology and have direct relevance for understanding the human and social dimensions of climate change. The time is ripe to understand the range of research that has been developing in social psychology on attitudes, beliefs and actions, to build upon these insights, and integrate them with knowledge from other sciences to develop models and theories indigenous to the climate change context. In the following section, we provide a brief overview of recent social psychological research that addresses three broad themes relevant to understanding and responding to climate change. These themes are as follows: (i) social psychological influences on climate change attitudes and beliefs; (ii) facilitators and barriers to climate change action; and (iii) changing climate change attitudes and behaviour. Although there is some overlap in these themes, as an organising principle they intuitively map on to key questions that arise in relation to climate change. Our aim is to highlight recent examples of social psychological research that provide interesting and important insights in relation to these themes. Swim, Markowitz, and Bloodhart (2012) have noted that much of the social psychological research on climate change has emerged since 2006; we focus in on the most recent of this research that has been published since 2010. We also outline how the studies in the special issue relate to these themes. We recognise that these are not the only areas where social psychological research and theory can make important contributions but they nevertheless relate to key questions that need to be addressed. We conclude the introduction by proposing considerations that social psychologists could take into account in their future research on climate change. A major focus in the climate change literature and the media more broadly has been on describing climate change attitudes and beliefs. In many developed nations, questions about beliefs and attitudes related to climate change have become a standard component of political polling (e.g. Gallup polls and Lowy Institute polls), and there are comprehensive national and cross-national surveys that address this topic. Examples include US research by the Yale Climate Change Communication project (Leiserowitz, Maibach, Roser-Renouf, & Smith, 2010), national surveys conducted in Australia (Leviston et al., 2011; Reser et al., 2012), and the U.K. (Pidgeon, 2012) and the Eurobarometer research conducted in Europe (The European Opinion Research Group, 2002). As the study of attitudes—their conceptualization, measurement, formation, function and relationship with behaviour—has been a cornerstone of social psychological research, social psychology can make important contributions to these assessments. Note that although social psychological theories usually distinguish between attitudes and beliefs, these terms are often used interchangeably in the climate change research domain, and for the sake of simplicity, we will usually use attitudes to encompass both attitudes and beliefs. Recent reviews of the attitude literature from 1996 to 2009 highlight significant trends and directions in this area of research (Ajzen, 2001; Bohner & Dickel, 2011; Crano & Prislin, 2006). These trends include the role of attitude strength and attitude ambivalence, the distinction between implicit and explicit attitudes, the recognition that attitudes have cognitive and affective underpinnings, and the influence of bodily and external physical cues on attitudes. Recent social psychological research on climate change particularly provides examples of the influence of bodily and external cues and the distinction between cognitive and affective aspects of attitudes, and three of the papers in the special issue address the latter issue. The work on internal bodily and external physical cues is a growing research area with a special issue of the European Journal of Social Psychology devoted to the concept of embodied cognition (Schubert & Semin, 2009). As the distal nature of climate change and the relative insulation of humans from their physical environment are thought to be key barriers to greater engagement with climate change (Moser, 2010), it is perhaps not surprising that this area of research has extended into the climate change domain. Cues that help to 'bring to life' the experience of global warming could help to overcome these psychological barriers. Risen and Critcher (2011) have shown that feelings of warmth increased beliefs in global warming and that this effect was mediated through greater ease in constructing more fluent mental images of hot outdoor images. Other studies have shown that people had greater concern about global warming and donated more money to a global warming charity when they thought that the temperature outside was warmer than usual (Li, Johnson, & Zaval, 2011), that embodied temperature influenced concern for global warming and willingness to volunteer for a global warming group (Lewandowski, Ciarocco, & Gately, 2012) and that priming heat-related cognitions resulted in greater belief in global warming and willingness to pay to reduce global warming (Joireman, Truelove, & Duell, 2010). Physical external cues, in this case the presence of bare trees in the laboratory, also increased belief in global warming (Guéguen, 2012). These studies illustrate how subtle cues can influence climate change attitudes in the moment, although the longevity of these effects on attitudes has not been explored. Another important direction in attitude research that has relevance for climate change is the recognition that attitudes have affective as well as cognitive underpinnings. This is important when considering that the high levels of risk associated with climate change means that it could elicit strong emotional responses. Cognitive approaches to understanding attitudes (e.g. expectancy-value models) have been at the forefront of how we understand attitude formation (Ajzen, 2001). From this perspective, attitudes are the outcome of a cognitive process of evaluating beliefs about the attitude object; for example, a person who has positive beliefs about a climate change policy is likely to hold favourable attitudes to that policy. Consistent with the importance of cognitive, rational processes, Tobler, Visschers, and Siegrist (2012) have shown that perceived costs and benefits of climate change policies were significant predictors of support for these policies and, in most cases, were stronger predictors of behavioural willingness and policy support than other variables (e.g. demographics, climate change concern and climate change scepticism). But there is also evidence for the affective basis of attitudes and even for the primacy of affective aspects of attitudes (Verplanken, Jofstee, & Janssen, 1998; Zajonc, 1984). Recent reviews of the attitude literature suggest that, rather than attitudes being determined by one or the other, affect and cognition are both likely to be important for the formation of attitudes (Ajzen, 2001; Crano & Prislin, 2006). For example, whether affective or cognitive aspects of attitude objects are accessed more readily depends on whether the attitude object itself is more affectively or cognitively based (Giner-Sorolla, 2004). Three articles in the current issue pick up on the cognitive and affective aspects of climate change attitudes and perceptions. Although it seems intuitively likely that having greater knowledge about climate change should be related to climate change attitudes, findings in relation to knowledge have been mixed. Some research has shown that knowing more about the causes and consequences of climate change is associated with greater climate change risk judgments (Sunblad, Biel, & Gärling, 2009), whereas other studies have shown no effects or have suggested the possibility that having more knowledge could even be negatively related to climate change beliefs for those with a politically conservative orientation (Malka, Krosnick, & Langer, 2009; McCright & Dunlap, 2011). Yet, Guy, Kashima, Walker, and O'Neill (this issue) point out that knowledge is usually measured with proxy measures such as scientific literacy or self-reported climate change knowledge rather than objective knowledge of climate change, and therefore, it is premature to dismiss the positive relationship between knowledge and attitudes. Their study used an objective measure of climate change knowledge and shows that people who are more knowledgeable have greater belief that climate change is happening, and, moreover, knowledge attenuates the negative relationship between ideology (i.e. individualism) and climate change attitudes. Van der Linden (this issue) specifically addresses how affect and cognition relate to climate change perceptions. The study investigates the relationship between personal experiences of extreme weather events, affect relating to climate change, and climate change risk perceptions. The results of the structural equation modelling of a national British sample provides support for a dual-process model whereby cognitive appraisals activate risk perceptions, and risk and affect mutually reinforce each other in a feedback loop. The paper by Leviston, Price, and Bishop (this issue) explores the role of affect in climate change responses somewhat differently in that it looks at the images people bring to mind when they think about climate change and assesses the affect associated with these images. The research explores whether the types of images that people associate with climate change might be a way of psychologically and affectively engaging or distancing themselves from climate change. It is not enough that people endorse attitudes that are in tune with scientific consensus on climate change; these attitudes need to translate into positive action, whether that is individual private-sphere behaviours such as 'green' consumerism, public-sphere non-activist behaviour such as voting for political parties with environmentally responsible policies or collective environmental activism that seeks to influence decision-makers (Stern, 2000). These types of distinctions are important as the different classes of behaviour might have quite different facilitators and barriers (Stern, 2000). Another important distinction when considering climate-change-related behaviour is the extent to which it is habitual and automatic versus reasoned and deliberative (Ouellette & Wood, 1998). Automaticity of environmentally harmful behaviour poses a serious barrier, whereas automaticity of environmentally protective behaviour makes future behaviour of this type more likely (Van Lange & Joireman, 2008). Yet another potentially important consideration is the goals associated with behaviours (Lindenberg & Steg, 2007). Behaviours can be performed for a range of reasons, and individuals' perception of their own motives could have implications for their future actions. As an example, energy conservation behaviours could be performed primarily to reduce carbon emissions or to save money; the issue with engaging in environmentally protective behaviours for non-environmental reasons is that it could undermine the development of an environmentalist identity (van der Werff, Steg, & Keizer, 2013) and reduce the likelihood of behavioural spillover (Thøgersen & Crompton, 2009). A range of social psychological theories outline the mechanisms that motivate people to take action, and these have had great reach both inside and outside of social psychology. These theories include (but are not limited to) theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) and perspectives that foreground the role of norms (e.g. norm focus theory; Cialdini, Reno, & Kallgren, 1990) and the social identity perspective (see Hornsey, 2008 for a recent review). The theory of planned behaviour has been used to examine determinants of a range of private-sphere environmental behaviours including employees' energy-saving behaviours (Greaves, Zibarras, & Stride, 2013; Zhang, Wang, & Zhou, 2014), private landholders' carbon sequestration and trading (Thompson & Hansen, 2013), renewable energy use (Alam et al., 2014) and opposition to wind farms (Read, Brown, Thorsteinsson, Morgan, & Price, 2013). Similarly, research drawing on self-determination theory has identified that experiencing more autonomous, self-determined motivation or perceiving that the government is more autonomy supportive is related to public-sphere and private-sphere environmental behaviours (De Groot & Steg, 2010; Lavergne, Sharp, Pelletier, & Holtby, 2010). Perhaps one of the most important contributions of social psychology to understanding human behaviour has been its theorisation of the influence of social norms (e.g. Cialdini et al., 1990). From a social identity perspective, the social groups to which we belong provide guidelines for appropriate behaviour through the internalisation of group norms (Hogg & Abrams, 1988; Hornsey, 2008). We only need to consider the powerful relationship between political party identification and climate change responses to see evidence of this process (Dunlap & McCright, 2008; Fielding, Head, Laffan, Western, & Hoegh-Guldberg, 2012). According to the social identity perspective, group norms are more likely to guide environmental behaviour when the social identity is more central and salient (Fielding, Terry, Masser, & Hogg, 2008; Terry, Hogg, & White, 1999). Furthermore, in salient intergroup contexts, in-group members tend to polarise away from out-group members, and their environmental intentions and behaviour will become more in-group normative (Ferguson, & 2011; & 2012). and (this issue) our understanding of how social identity and associated in-group norms influences climate-change-related behaviour. on social identity to distinguish between dimensions of group identification and whether different dimensions are more likely to guide behaviour. that extent to which group identity is important to the and rather than among group the relationship between group norms and when those behaviours are high Although much of the research to has focused on understanding and private-sphere environmental and (van & have extended their model of with collective to understand responses to climate change (Van & 2008). on a perspective & Swim, 2011), they propose and provide evidence for for people to with the climate and In the case of climate change, is a likely to be by and to the extent that they they be more likely to take action to reduce their can also be through that to their beliefs about whether group action will be in with climate change. and (this issue) this research by determinants of intentions to in collective climate emotional specifically on and as central and social norms into the Their findings that the perceived norm intentions to take part in a climate perceptions of and group In the section, we a brief overview of theories that could help to understand climate-change-related and these approaches suggest variables to to effect change. For example, research has shown the of to influence environmentally related behaviour et al., 2013; et al., 2010; Cialdini, & 2008; Cialdini, & 2008; & 2013; et al., 2012). In this section, we focus on research that addresses key that might be when to influence climate-change-related attitudes, beliefs and actions. important direction in research has been the of how to climate change to positive in climate change attitudes and beliefs. From a social psychological perspective, one of the of is the role of attitudes in & Dickel, 2011). A of the literature to a effect of attitudes on for versus et al., 2009), and there is evidence that this is more likely when people hold strong attitudes & 2007). This that people's attitudes will influence how they to to change climate-change-related attitudes and beliefs, and research is broadly with this. greater to on climate change with their own & and are more likely to climate when it to their beliefs & 2011; & 2013). In response to this, some have climate to be more when they with the For example, with greater had greater intentions when with that behaviour as the American way of & 2010), and climate greater intentions when with that the positive effects of climate change on the development of new Hornsey, & 2012). the of more we know from the work of and that people are risk and that risk in ways that highlight the of can be more than that focus on In the of climate change where is a of the and (2011) have shown that climate change that the the but the possibility of stronger intentions to and (this issue) on the model of & 2013) to provide a for climate change In they with one of policies that in renewable energy or limit The with the policies was when the with the policy. there was more with a policy of in renewable energy an when it was in terms of whereas greater was for a policy of emissions a when it was as also that the focus of their responses to the Another key issue that be is the possibility of to climate change and the risks to human and from climate change, of and are central to the of climate change. the effects of in relation to health behaviour & & 2000) provide evidence that elicit greater attitude and behaviour change but only when the is by of responses propose that people that response are and they have the to out the they will in behaviours to the there is this in to the such as or The for to climate change is in a study by and greater of climate change among with stronger beliefs who had been with about climate change, whereas this not on more Research has also shown that of to from climate change, particularly can be made more take the perspective of the by climate change (Swim & in to climate change also when social are & 1999). For example, when were to evidence of energy use by their own they were more likely to climate change to causes than when the was about 2013). Furthermore, this greater to causes was negatively associated with climate change concern and support for climate change that help reduce identity can greater engagement with climate change. on the and (2010) that a to reduce the of of climate change and personal with climate change and environmental behaviour. Although can help reduce to climate change, and (this issue) that the for to environmental problems can undermine individuals' willingness to take environmental as progress that can to future environmental and human health problems can reduce the likelihood of engaging in environmentally behaviour. The is perceptions of that a of in an as the idea of scientific progress our the need to through individual actions. The from this research is that it is important not to scientific of the major barriers that has been identified in relation to action to address climate change is the distal nature of the et al., major consequences will in the future and are perceived as more likely to affect other those who are already most This of climate change that that reduce the between and the future or between the and other humans help to overcome this In support of this, that focus on environmental consequences of climate change help climate change engagement & 2013), and to take the perspective of a future human experiencing environmental problems environmental engagement & 2013). The research of and (this issue) to whether our human identity can influence willingness to take environmental Consistent with research, they that are related to greater willingness to in environmental is though, is that priming people who have to think about to have high related to potentially it an intergroup context. This provides evidence of the of about climate change and the need to understand the Social psychology can also point to some and to greater willingness to in to address climate change. and (this issue) that that whether have an versus an can make a to how many behaviours they consider engaging In that had out behaviours they would not consider resulted in being to in more behaviours than an where people consider what they would consider from a In this introduction to the special we highlight areas where social psychological research has important insights to understanding climate change attitudes, beliefs and what influences these and how they can be We used recent social psychological research and the papers from this current issue to illustrate key The strength of a social psychological of climate change is that it can help us to understand the of responses to climate change, for example, how attitudes can be influenced by both affect and cognition, how attitudes and beliefs can responses to climate change and people to climate change with and It can also provide and to the of climate change It is to see the and of social psychological research that addresses important questions related to climate change, although this has been a recent (Swim et al., 2012). we are to to make important contributions to this area of research, though, we propose that social psychologists should consider the following in their future We noted that there are a range of that can take to address climate change, from private-sphere behaviours to non-activist public-sphere behaviours to environmental activism (Stern, 2000). Although all of these approaches can some have greater than & 2009). have greater to influence and and to effect Despite this, social psychological research often investigates private-sphere actions. As a we can our contribution to climate change research by our focus to individual behaviours and public-sphere responses to climate change & 2008). As a we are to what is about climate change. The groups we belong to and the social we can be powerful influences on our attitudes, beliefs and the effect of political identification on climate change attitudes is a of this. area where these have relevance is in the of national and climate change As an example, and (2012) on social identity to the in that when the of individual and other become a identity can that will lead to greater likelihood of The consideration of intergroup and how these or positive responses to climate change (e.g. climate change and introduction of climate change is an area that could provide important A critical distinction made in relation to climate change is between and According to the on Climate Change the to human to reduce the impacts of climate change, whereas the latter to that can be made to human or systems that can help to the or the that would from or climate change and are even the measures will not some of climate change, and is needed to with this (IPCC, Yet the issue of psychological has been in climate change & Swim, 2011). This is for at (i) as noted some of climate change is research on is and (ii) a lack of understanding of could in that to or reduce to climate change that impacts or of other or social & social psychological research is to be a serious to the climate change research greater needs to be focused on of The need to to the distinction between and to the need for social psychologists to work with other disciplines. et we social psychologists to become with the and research of other relevant that address climate change to the relevance and reach of social psychological research in this that solutions to climate change cannot be developed by one the issue systems including and A is and social psychology can make a significant contribution by methods and theories that help social and cognitive In we in this introduction to the special issue to foreground social psychological theories and findings relevant to key climate change questions. Although social psychology can a of and the social psychology of climate change is and more needs to be done we have a of and theories that are to climate change. we this, the of social psychology is likely to be at the of climate We that the special issue can help the progress that has been made and catalyse the development of an indigenous social psychology of climate change. We social psychologists to this that we can be part of the to one of the and environmental of our

Behavioral science approaches to promoting sustainable action have mainly focused on cognitive processes, whereas the role of emotions has received comparably little attention. However, emotions have a great but currently not fully exploited potential to contribute to a sustainable behavior change. In this perspective, we summarize recent research emphasizing the central and indispensable role of emotion in human thinking and judgment. We discuss how these insights can promote affective reactivity toward sustainability issues, help leverage the potential of emotion to motivate action, and improve emotional climate change communication and intervention strategies. We outline a research agenda that we see as crucial for obtaining a solid evidence base on how emotions can optimally promote sustainable behavior. This paper is meant to stimulate discussion and a coordinated research effort on how emotions may be better leveraged to promote large-scale sustainable action and to promote a stronger integration of emotional strategies into the toolbox of policy makers.

Climate and weather are important resources for tourism. In particular, nature-based tourism activities and operations are largely dependent on and affected by environmental conditions and changes. Due to the significant socio-economic role of the nature-based tourism and the tourism industry, in general, in the region of southern Africa it is important to understand the dynamics between the industry and climate change. A key aspect of this understanding are perceptions and adaptation preparedness of tourism operators towards the estimated impact of climate change. There is a dearth of empirical studies on climate change perceptions and adaptation in nature-based tourism operations across southern Africa and specifically from Zimbabwe. This research gap is addressed in this article which provides an exploratory analysis of the nature of climate change adaptation practices occurring in southern Africa using evidence from Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe.

Climate and weather are important resources for tourism. In particular, nature-based tourism activities and operations are largely dependent on and affected by environmental conditions and changes. Due to the significant socio-economic role of the nature-based tourism and the tourism industry, in general, in the region of southern Africa it is important to understand the dynamics between the industry and climate change. A key aspect of this understanding are perceptions and adaptation preparedness of tourism operators towards the estimated impact of climate change. There is a dearth of empirical studies on climate change perceptions and adaptation in nature-based tourism operations across southern Africa and specifically from Zimbabwe. This research gap is addressed in this article which provides an exploratory analysis of the nature of climate change adaptation practices occurring in southern Africa using evidence from Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe.

How the World's Religions Are Responding to Climate Change: Social Scientific Investigations. Edited by RobinGlobus Veldman, AndrewSzasz, and RandolphHaluza‐DeLay. New York: Routledge, 2014.

Climate action is goal 13 of UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Future impacts of climate change depend on climatic changes, the level of climate change policy, both mitigation and adaptation, and socio-economic status and development pathways. To investigate the climate change policy impact of socio-economic development pathways, we develop three pathways. Climate change affects socio-economic development in many ways. We interpret global storylines into South Korean contexts: Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 (SSP1), SSP2, and SSP3 for population, economy, and land use. SSP elements and proxies were identified and elaborated through stakeholder participatory workshops, demand survey on potential users, past trends, and recent national projections of major proxies. Twenty-nine proxies were quantified using sector-specific models and downscaled where possible. Socio-economic and climate scenarios matrixes enable one to quantify the contribution of climate, population, economic development, and land-use change in future climate change impacts. Economic damage between climate scenarios is different in SSPs, and it highlights that SSPs are one of the key components for future climate change impacts. Achieving SDGs generates additional incentives for local and national governments as it can reduce mitigation and adaptation policy burden.

Climate change is a complex and contentious public issue, but the risk-management options available to us are straightforward and have well-characterized strengths and weaknesses.

Research on the mechanism of how climate change affects cultivated soil organic carbon is the basis for the management of cultivated land quality in the context of climate change. Crop phenological responses to climate change have an important effect on cultivated soil organic carbon as well. However, previous research primarily focused on the independent effects of climate change or crop phenological responses on the changes in soil organic carbon, and few studies have analyzed the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon under the combined influence of both factors or quantified their contribution rates to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon. Based on topsoil samples in 2008 and 2021, annual pre-season and mid-season climate data from 2008 to 2021, and the phenological parameters extracted from the enhanced vegetation index （EVI） time series from 2007 to 2022, a soil organic carbon predictive model was constructed using the random forest algorithm. The total change in soil organic carbon from 2008 to 2021, the change in soil organic carbon under climate change alone, and the change in soil organic carbon under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses were simulated. Furthermore, the contributions of climate change and crop phenological responses to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon were distinguished and quantified. Moreover, the dominant influencing factors of soil organic carbon changes and their spatial distributions were identified and analyzed. The results were as follows： ① Under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses, a decrease was observed in soil organic carbon in 74.15% of the cultivated land area in Fujian Province during the years 2008-2021, with an average decrease of 2.20 g·kg-1. Additionally, there was an increase in soil organic carbon in 25.85% of the cultivated area, with an average increase of 1.48 g·kg-1. ②The average contribution rates of pre-season climate, crop phenological responses to climate change, mid-season climate, and phenological changes resulting from cultivars shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures to soil organic carbon changes were 34.08%, 28.56%, 22.75%, and 14.61%, respectively. Overall, climate change had a greater impact on the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon in Fujian Province than the crop phenological response to climate change. ③ The regions where climate change and phenological response jointly acted as dominant influencing factors held the largest area, accounting for 47.06% of the total cultivated land area in Fujian Province, and the regions where climate change was the dominant influencing factor alone held the second-largest area, accounting for 28.64% of the total cultivated land area. ④ Higher contribution rates of pre-season climate factors and phenological changes resulting from cultivar shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures tended to be distributed in higher-altitude areas, whereas higher contribution rates of mid-season climate factors and phenological responses to climate change tended to be distributed in lower-altitude areas. These research findings can provide a theoretical basis for decision making regarding the management of cultivated land quality and the safeguarding of food security in the context of climate change.

Catchments in the future North: interdisciplinary science for sustainable management in the 21^st Century

Left unmitigated, climate change poses a catastrophic risk to human health, requiring an urgent and concerted response from every country. As the home to one fifth of the world's population and the largest emitter of carbon dioxide globally, China's interventions in climate change are of pivotal importance, both to human health and to the planet. Similar to other countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation would bring immense health benefits for China's 1·4 billion people, and building these considerations into any COVID-19 recovery strategy and the detailed pathway to fulfil the 2060 carbon neutrality pledge will ensure it improves human wellbeing, both now and in the future. Decisions made over the coming months and years will establish the course of climate change policy for decades to come. To meet this challenge, Tsinghua University (Beijing, China), partnering with University College London (London, UK) and 17 Chinese and international institutions, has produced the Lancet Countdown China report, focusing at the national level and building on the work of the global Lancet Countdown. Drawing on international methods and frameworks, this report aims to understand and track the links between public health and climate change at the national level. This paper is one part of the Lancet Countdown's broader efforts to develop regional expertise and understanding. Uniquely, the data and results in this report are presented at the provincial level where possible, to facilitate the targeted response strategies for local decision makers. Taken as a whole, the findings of the 23 indicators convey two key messages. The first message is that the health effects from climate change in China are accelerating, posing an unacceptably high amount of health risk if global temperatures continue to rise. Every province is affected, each with its unique health threats, and targeted response strategies should be made accordingly. The effects of climate change, manifested in rising temperatures, more extreme weather events, and shifting vector ecology, are being felt in China. Heatwave-related mortality has risen by a factor of four from 1990 to 2019, reaching 26 800 deaths in 2019. The monetised cost of the high number of deaths is equivalent to the average annual income of 1·4 million people in China. Older people (>65 years old), who face a 10·4% higher risk of dying during a heatwave, endured an average of 13 more heatwave days in 2019 compared with the 1986–2005 baseline. For outdoor workers, their potential heat-related labour productivity loss reached 0·5% of total national work hours, costing 1% of China's gross domestic product (GDP), equivalent to its annual fiscal expenditure on science and technology. Driven in part by rising temperatures and a changing climate, the advent of more extreme wildfires and the spread of dengue fever will in turn lead to profound health effects. Different regions have unique health threats, requiring a targeted response—19 provinces have had an at least 10% rise over the past two decades in three or more of the six health effect indicators reported. Importantly, many highly populated and economically advanced provinces, such as Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang, are faced with health risks that are larger and more rapidly accelerating than others. The second message is that impressive and concerted improvements have been made across several sectors in China; however, the gap in the country's response to the health effects of climate change is large. In some sectors, China has taken large steps to address climate change. Solar power generation is growing at an unprecedented rate of 26·5% per year, rising to 26·8 gigawatts (GW) of newly installed capacity in 2019. Investments in low-carbon energy are now nine times greater than those in fossil fuels (rising from a 1:1 ratio in 2008); and, providing 4·1 million jobs in 2018, renewable energy now employs more people in China than fossil fuel extraction industries. As a result of strong policy measures, severe air pollution has also decreased, with a 28% reduction in annual average particulate matter of 2·5 μm or less (PM2·5) concentration in cities from 2015 to 2019, resulting in 90 000 fewer PM2·5-related premature deaths annually. These air pollution control policies also act to mitigate climate change and have resulted in a decline in China's coal share in total primary energy supply from 66% in 2014 to 59% in 2018. Showing leadership at the subnational level, three provinces already have a provincial health and climate change plan in place, with four more provinces underway. However, although these changes have been rapid, more shifts of a greater size are necessary to enact a response that is of the scale required to fulfil China's carbon neutrality by 2060 pledge and to minimise the rising health burdens of climate change, both in China and around the world. Although renewable energy use is rising, coal stills holds a 59% share of the total primary energy supply in China. Fossil fuel subsidies were US$41·9 billion in 2018, without considering the contribution of fossil fuels to the estimated $10·7 billion economic losses because of premature mortality from PM2·5 air pollution. Although there have been substantial reductions in air pollution, 42% of China's population still live in areas that do not meet the interim air quality guidelines from WHO, and almost all cities have PM2·5 concentrations more than the recommended annual average of 10 μg/m3. The health effects of climate change are not adequately recognised or addressed, as climate change is not referenced in the Healthy China Action Plan (2019–30), and China is yet to introduce a standalone national adaptation plan for health. Taking a broader perspective, media coverage and individual engagement in health and climate change are low, with little spread of knowledge and engagement. China will need to scale up progress in all sectors to counteract the rising curve of the health risks from climate change. Five recommendations are proposed to key stakeholders in health and climate change in China: (1)Enhance interdepartmental cooperation. Climate change is a challenge that requires an integrated response from all sectors. Although China commits to integrate health into all policies, substantial interdepartmental cooperation among health, environment, energy, economic, financial, and education authorities is urgently needed.(2)Strengthen health emergency preparedness. Although the amount of health emergency preparedness in China would be greatly enhanced after COVID-19, knowledge and findings on current and future climate-related health threats still do not have enough attention and should be fully integrated into the emergency preparedness and response system, so that future health service, medical supplies, and infrastructure needs could be planned ahead.(3)Support research and raise awareness. Additional financial support should be allocated to health and climate change research in China, to enhance the knowledge of health system adaptation, mitigation measures, and their resulting health benefits. At the same time, media and academia should be fully motivated to raise awareness on this topic for the public and for politicians. Additionally, the Government of China should update the Healthy China Action Plan (2019–30) to address the health risks of climate change as soon as possible.(4)Increase climate change mitigation. China's new pledges towards carbon neutrality by 2060 is a major step forward. Speeding up the coal phase-out process is therefore necessary to be consistent with the carbon neutrality pledges and continue China's progress on air pollution reduction. Fossil fuel subsidies should also be phased out to reflect the true cost of ongoing fossil fuel use and to avoid undermining the effect of China's emissions trading scheme, scheduled to take effect in 2021.(5)Ensure the country's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic protects health both now and in the future. Decisions made as part of China's efforts to recover from COVID-19 will shape the public's health for years to come. The longer-term prospects for lives, livelihoods, and a sustainable economy will be put in jeopardy if these interventions do not prioritise climate change.