Abstract
This paper presents research results of a recent project creating an operational approach to assess vulnerability to climate variability and climate change in Tijuana, Mexico. Despite chronic flooding problems throughout the history of the city, local authorities and state authorities have given little attention to vulnerability to climate variability and climate change. This is the first assessment of vulnerability to flooding carried out in Tijuana. Research results show that over 10 percent of the total population in the city (over 153,000 inhabitants) lives in areas with high vulnerability to flooding, and an additional 18 percent (277,000 inhabitants) are in areas with what we classify as medium-high vulnerability. Results by census track identified specific areas and social groups in these categories, as well as the underlying drivers of vulnerability associated with the biophysical conditions of the landscape that have been modified by urban growth and through social processes (namely, deficiencies in local urban planning and its enforcement along with deficient social policies). Information and knowledge of vulnerability is a useful first step in the long process of creating climate adaptation and resilient pathways within the context of sustainable urban development.
Highlights
The latest IPCC Assessment reports broad agreement among the international scientific community that climate change risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts are increasing across the world in urban centers of all sizes [1]
Cities in high-income countries have created adaptation plans and strategies in an effort to reduce risks and vulnerabilities associated with climate change, recognizing that adaptation to future impacts requires initiating responses as soon as possible to avoid being locked into situations that would limit adaptation options in the short-term, middle-term, and long-term [5,6]
We suggest the study of vulnerability and its underlying causes related to climate impacts is a key analytical tool to connect them with existing policies and development stressors
Summary
The latest IPCC Assessment reports broad agreement among the international scientific community that climate change risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts are increasing across the world in urban centers of all sizes [1]. The report stresses climate change will have profound impacts on a broad spectrum of infrastructure systems, services, the built environment and ecosystem services, it recognizes urban centers around the world face severe constraints to raising and allocating resources to implement adaptation This problem is relevant in cities within low-income and middle-income countries. We argue vulnerability is an analytical concept useful in the study of climate impacts and their consequences in urban areas It helps identify adaptation needs within the context of existing development policies. We explored alternatives to make the IPCC definition of vulnerability [25,33,43] an analytical tool conducive to achieving the three main research goals of the project: identify local communities vulnerable to climate change and their degree of vulnerability; identify and analyze the underlying causes of their vulnerability; and develop a methodological framework useful to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and climate change in other Mexican cities.
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