Vulnerability assessment of crop production to climate change across Northwest China during 1995–2014

Abstract

Crop production vulnerability to climate change in Northwest China depends upon multiple socio-ecological factors. Knowledge regarding the specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing crop production vulnerability is limited that address spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse zones. We propose an integrated assessment framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop production derived from crop yield sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive consequences across 338 counties in Northwest China during 1995–2014. Maps on these indices were generated using climatic and socioeconomic data with spatial mapping method. Different clusters of crop production vulnerability were then identified by a k-means cluster method to assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional scale. Results show that the vulnerability of crop production in 338 counties varies significantly in both geographical and socioeconomic aspects, specifically, vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe, Menyuan, Hualong, and Ledu, and Xayar had the lowest value of vulnerability. This indicates that adaptation strategies for regional crop production need to focus on several levels, from the improvement of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation by promoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing limited water resources in typical arid areas, to agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the capital investment and technology upgrade of crop production on traditional farming regions. This study provides convincing evidence that the factors related to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation fluctuations. We recommend these findings be used to facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food security in specific regions.