Vulnerability and Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change affects water availability for soil, and groundwater extraction influences water redistribution by altering water demand, both of which significantly affect soil moisture. Quantifying their relative contribution to the changes in soil moisture will further our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the global water cycle. In this study, two groups of simulations were conducted with and without groundwater (GW) extraction (estimated based on local water supply and demand) from 1979 to 2010 using the Chinese Academy of Sciences land surface model, CAS-LSM, with four global meteorological forcing datasets (GSWP3, PRINCETON, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI). To investigate the contribution of climate change and GW extraction, a trajectory-based method was used. Comparing the simulated results with the in situ dataset of the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) and the satellite-based soil moisture product of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) indicated that the CAS-LSM reasonably reproduced the distribution of soil moisture and matched the temporal changes well. Globally, our results suggested a significant decreasing trend in surface soil moisture (0–10 cm, 0.98×10-4 mm3 mm−3 yr−1) over the 32-year period tested. The drying trends were mainly observed in arid regions such as the tropical desert regions in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, while the wetting trends were primarily in tropical forested areas in South America and northeastern Asia. Climate change contributed 101.2 % and 90.7 % to global drying and wetting trends of surface soil moisture, respectively, while GW extraction accounted for −1.2 % and 9.3 %, respectively. In deep soil, GW extraction contributed 1.37 % and −3.21 % to the drying and wetting trends, respectively. The weak influence of GW extraction may be because this activity occurs in limited areas. GW extraction contributed more than 35 % to the change in surface soil moisture in wetting areas where GW overexploitation occurs. GW is mainly extracted for irrigation to alleviate soil water stress in semiarid regions that receive limited precipitation, thereby slowing the drying trend and accelerating the wetting trend of surface soil. However, GW exploitation weakens the hydraulic connection between the soil and aquifer, leading to deeper soils drying up. Overall, climate change dominated the soil moisture trends, but the effect of GW extraction cannot be ignored.

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionClimate change effects will alter biodiversity, food production and finally rural households' in the next decades (Tol, 2002; Velarde et al., 2005 and IPCC, 2007). In Vietnam, climate change has been observed to foster temperature increases and sea level rise, which have caused permanent inundation, increased flooding, as well as salt water intrusion (Dasgupta et al., 2007; Wassmann et el., 2004). Scientific information and climatic mapping show that 10 of Vietnam's susceptible provinces to climate change are among the top 25 percent most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia, and that Ben Tre is one of these (Yusuf and Francisco, 2010).The Ben Tre region has suffered immensely from climatic change as evidenced by recent salt water intrusion and increased frequency of typhoon activities. Economic damages caused by salt water intrusion from 1995 to 2008 amounted to US $32,423,080,632 including 15,782 ha of dead or less productive paddy, 13,700 ha of shed unripe coconuts, 360 ha of less productive aquaculture, and 5,289 tons of dead shrimp. The intrusion also placed 132,823 households into a situation of continued lack of fresh water (Ben Tre DPI, 2010). Nine years later, the typhoon named Durian, with wind velocity of over 133 km per hour, had severely devastated the province, which resulted in 17 deaths, 162 injured people, and 71,340 collapsed or unroofed houses (Ben Tre CEHMF, 2010).A number of studies have examined the effects of cli mate change on Vietnam's economy and found varying results (Adger, 1999; Dinh, 2012), but have attributed many of the climatic occurrences to climate change events. The variation in results occurs because of spatial fluctuations of climate change effects. To observe specific effects of climate change on community food consumption vulnerability, we examine a particular case in Vietnam, Mekong Delta, Ben Tre Province, which has been seriously impacted by recent climatic change events. For these reasons, the study focuses on food consumption assessment and poverty in the Ben Tre Province.2. Objectives of the StudyIn this paper, we assess the impacts of climate change on households' livelihoods in Ben Tre Province to determine how these changes affect the consumption of inhabitants in these areas. Specifically we: (1) determine the extent of of households in the selected coastal communities; (2) determine the factors that affect food consumption per capita in the coastal communities in Ben Tre Province; and (3) evaluate the effects of coastal climatic events on the consumption and poverty in the area.We proceed by defining the term then we examine the relationship between climate change and vulnerability; we evaluate the approaches in representing vulnerability; and propose a conceptual framework for evaluation of vulnerability. We then proceed with a methodical approach; discuss the model development; present the results and finally the discussion and conclusion.3. Vulnerability3.1 Definitions of VulnerabilityThe term vulnerability has no universally accepted definition (Fussel, 2007). Stu dies on natural threats define as the degree to which an unprotected unit is prone to being harmed by exposure to a perturbation or stress, in conjunction with its ability (or lack thereof) to cope, recover or fundamentally adapt (become a new system or go extinct) (Kasperson et al., 2001; Fussel, 2007). In contrast, the poverty and development literature, which focuses on social, economic and political conditions, defines as a cumulative measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic, and political exposure to a range of harmful distresses (Bohle et al., 1994). According to Yamin et al. (2005), the communities affected by disasters define as conditions that are determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, and that increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of a hazard. …

Optimal groundwater management under climate change and technical progress

ABSTRACTGlobal climate change has resulted in a gradual sea-level rise. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, thereby threatening freshwater habitat and drinking water supplies. On the other hand, sea-level rise, resulting from thermal expansion of ocean waters and increased melting of glaciers and ice caps, is one of the most apparent and widespread consequences of climate change. This phenomenon has been taken into account in all the Assessment Reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this paper, salinity intrusion and intrusion length due to possible sea-level rise in the Sebou estuary (Morocco) was investigated. A one-dimensional hydrodynamic-salinity transport model was used for the simulation of the salinity intrusion and associated water quality, with observed field data being used for model calibration and validation. Additionally, the model validation process showed that the model results fit the observed data fairly well. A coupled gas-cycle/climate model was used to generate the climate change scenarios in the studied area that showed sea-level rises varying from 0.3 to 0.9 m for 2100. The models were then combined to assess the impact of future sea-level rise on the salinity distribution and intrusion length in the Sebou estuary. The response of salt intrusion length to changes in important dimensional parameters are presented, showing that the salinity intrusion length is inversely correlated with the river discharge, i.e., a high river discharge results in a reduced salt intrusion and vice versa, and directly with the sea-level rise. Additionally, the magnitude and frequency of the salinity standard violations at the two pump stations were predicted for 2100, showing that the salinity violations under climate change effects can increase to ∼45–48% of the times at these locations. Finally, the main objective of this simulation method is to accelerate and facilitate of systems' behavior learning in the current and future situation.

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

In the aftermath of the catastrophic 2019–2020 bushfires, the corona virus disease of 2019 pandemic and recent devastating floods in New South Wales and Queensland, Australians voted for climate action in the 2022 Federal election, and a new Climate Change Bill1 has already passed the House of Representatives. Climate change is recognised by scientists, public health experts, Indigenous leaders, economists and the Australian public at large as the most pressing issue at our doorstep.2-5 As we consider the veracity of net zero emission election commitments and the architecture of a post-pandemic recovery in Australia, we use science, public health expertise and a common chronic condition to explain the links between key issues and outline a road map for action in Australia. In this commentary, we highlight current evidence on the relationships between climate change, air pollution, fossil fuel use and their associated impacts on public health. We use asthma as a case study to examine the economic and human health burden arising from this climate-air pollution-fossil fuel triad. Australia's dependence on fossil fuels and gaps in energy policy are underscored as drivers of negative climate and public health outcomes. We provide a roadmap for action consisting of a mandate for: rapid de-carbonisation of Australia's energy systems; adoption of a healthcare without harm framework; and preparing public health systems to prevent and control asthma exacerbations. Climate change is the greatest threat to public health of the 21st century.6 The planet has warmed significantly over the past century by on average 0.8°C, largely as a result of increased global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG).7 Human activity and fossil fuel-based, carbon intensive energy systems have contributed substantially to global heating. Climate change is having profound effects on weather systems, exemplified by the increased frequency and duration of extreme weather events including floods, drought and bushfires. Climate change also adversely impacts on atmospheric air quality and air pollution.1 The relationship between climate change and air quality is bi-directional: climate change can exacerbate or increase existing air pollutants (e.g., atmospheric heating increases ground level ozone); air polluting emissions influence the climate (e.g., release of carbon-based materials such as black soot have a heating effect); several sources of air pollution are sources of GHGs (e.g., methane locks heat in the atmosphere, triggering climate change). Incomplete combustion of fossil fuels is a primary source of air pollutants (e.g., particulate matter [PM]2.5) and is harmful to human health.8 Higher temperatures and carbon dioxide levels arising from climate change also increase airborne allergenic pollens contributing to allergic asthma.9 The energy sector is the largest contributor to GHG emissions in Australia.8 Australia's primary energy consumption is dominated by fossil fuels (i.e., coal 40%, oil 34% and gas 22%)10 and its electricity system is founded on centralised, carbon-intensive coal-fired generation. Australia's coal burning (and exports) contributes to climate change and air pollution and hence health impacts. Every step of coal's lifecycle produces air pollutants that affect human health. Burning coal produces fly ash and particulate matter (PM2.5), which lodge in the lungs, causing irritation and inflammation.11 Transport (energy) is the second largest source of emissions after electricity production.12 The road transport sector, including passenger and commercial vehicles, is reliant on petroleum-based fossil fuels and is a significant contributor to air pollution in cities and regions.13 For example, petrol and diesel emissions arising from road traffic are a major culprit in asthma exacerbations: Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure and living in close proximity to a major road are associated with an increase in the likelihood of asthma in children and adults.14, 15 Asthma is one of the most common and costly of all chronic disease conditions affecting more than 260 million people globally, and both its prevalence and incidence is strongly associated with air quality and atmospheric pollution16 In 2021, 2.7 million people (10.7%) of the Australian population had asthma, making it a common non-communicable disease17 and accounting for 417 deaths in 2020.18 Nationally, there were over 37 000 hospitalisations with asthma as the principal diagnosis in 2016 and around 2% of all general practitioner encounters were for asthma, representing the 14th most common reason for a general practitioner consultation in that year.19, 20 As asthma is a lifelong condition, the costs associated with the condition are high, both to the individual as well as to the health service, where it accounts for $770 million in direct expenditures annually.19 Studies of coal mine fires and coal town residency illuminate the fossil fuel, air pollution and asthma relationship. The Hazelwood coal mine fire in the Latrobe Valley, Victoria in 2014 created plumes of smoke and ash with high PM2.5 for 45 days. Guo et al.21 found increased risks of all-causes, respiratory diseases, and asthma related emergency presentations and hospital admissions. Casey et al.11 found living near coal-fired power plants is linked to higher rates of respiratory disease and increased asthma exacerbations, while shutting down a coal plant or upgrading emission controls decreases inhaler use, emergency department visits and hospitalisation for asthma among local residents. Gas has also been associated with childhood asthma: one study of Australian children reported the population attributable fraction for childhood asthma associated with household gas stoves (which release PM2.5, NO2) for childhood asthma was approximately 12%, corresponding to over 2700 disability adjusted life years.15 Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of bushfires in Australia. Smoke from bushfires is a major risk factor for asthma exacerbations: the 2019–2020 summer bushfires have been linked to 429 premature deaths, more than 2000 hospitalisations for respiratory health issues and 1500 emergency department presentations with asthma.235 The health-related economic costs of the 2019–2020 bushfires was estimated AU$1.95 billion, with the majority due to the economic costs of premature mortality associated with the bushfires; AU$25 million of healthcare costs, $24 million for cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalisations, and AU$1 million for asthma emergency department attendances.22 Climate change effects allergic diseases.23 Thunderstorm asthma is an allergic asthma response to airborne allergenic pollens that rupture due to osmotic shock following a thunderstorm event, and thereby allowing smaller allergenic sub-pollen particles to reach the lower airways to trigger the potentially deadly allergic response24 (see Figure 1). In November 2016, the phenomenon of thunderstorm asthma caused 10 deaths in Australia and more than 3300 ED presentations.19, 24 Several studies have shown that plants growing in highly polluted air produce more allergenic pollen.25 When combined with pollen rupture, it results in a volatile mix that turns such pollens into ‘biological time bombs’. Knox et al.26 have shown that the major allergen of rye grass pollen has the capacity to directly interact with diesel exhaust carbon particles (DECP). They assert allergen-loaded DECP has the capacity to penetrate the lower airways and prompt an episode of asthma. Figure 1 describes the relationship between air pollution, climate change, fossil fuels and thunderstorm asthma as a public health issue. Healthcare—one of the world's largest industries—contributes to climate change and air pollution. The Australian healthcare system is responsible for ~7% of national GHGs.27 In the United States, one study has estimated that healthcare-related air pollution was responsible for 9% of respiratory disease burden from PM emissions.28 Similar estimates of disease impact are not available locally, but Australian healthcare is responsible for around 3% of national PM footprint.29 Paradoxically, some asthma treatments are significant contributors to GHGs. Metered-dose inhalers for asthma contribute an estimated 3.9% of the total carbon footprint of the UK National Health Service,30 due to the extremely potent GHGs used as propellants in some delivery systems. Australian estimates are not available, but the same products are widely used in this country. This scenario demonstrates perverse feedback loops—air pollution and climate change drive each other, and both drive increasing asthma incidence through various pathways, while treating asthma can itself further drive climate change through GHG emissions. This is a critical decade. Linear, single issue and reductionist approaches will not cut through the complex public health challenges arising from the climate change, air pollution and fossil fuel triad. Here we offer the new federal government and health sector a three-point roadmap for action. The roadmap highlights key public health-oriented interventions, which will prevent health-harming emissions, promote a healthy recovery from the pandemic and help Australians prepare for increasing asthma prevalence due to environmental triggers. Australia remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels and is unlikely to keep its commitments to the Paris Agreement to which it is a signatory. Since 1990, there has only been a 10% reduction in the share of electricity generation produced from non-renewable fuels (89.9% in 1990 to 80.2% in 2019) with more than half of total generation still reliant on coal.31 Stopping fossil fuel development and decarbonising energy systems are the most urgent and far reaching challenges of this decade.32 To prevent health harming air polluting emissions and to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, Australia requires a coherent and timely policy framework that enables disinvestment in fossil fuels and a rapid transition to renewable energy. Central to this policy framework are climate change mitigation targets—an essential upstream and long-term public health strategy for managing the underlying causes of the increasing bushfire risk and thunderstorm asthma. This critical, foundational government policy framework will also support emission reduction efforts within the Australian healthcare sector.33 Action must be taken now, as limiting global heating to 1.5°C will require deep emissions reductions of at least 45% from 2010 levels by 2030.7 Australia's healthcare sector needs to reduce its total emissions to net zero. By 2030, an 80% reduction in emissions is required for healthcare to help meet the 1.5°C Paris Agreement commitments and minimise the predicted catastrophic public health consequences of climate change.33, 34 Australian hospitals and health systems must implement interventions which will decarbonize healthcare delivery to ‘first do no harm’ whilst maintaining and improving health. Healthcare systems can take cost-effective action to transition toward zero emissions energy, buildings, travel and transport, waste management as well as low emissions pharmaceuticals, sustainable food system ectera.35 There are multiple health service level examples of successful action (see Global Green and Health Hospitals36) and state and territory government policy leadership can support compliance and implementation. Substitution of high emission products with more climate friendly alternatives and incentivising the production of green medications is another key strategy. This is particularly relevant to asthma medication. Alternative delivery mechanisms to metered dose inhalers without the high global heating potential propellants, such as dry powder based inhalers, are available and suitable for the majority of patients.35 Wilkinson et al.30 study found that switching to low global warming potential asthma inhalers has co-benefits for reducing GHGs and drug costs. Many peak health and medical bodies have declared a climate emergency. We support the call by Australia's peak associations including Doctors for the Environment Australia, Australian Medical Association, Royal Australian College of Physicians and the Climate and Health Alliance for the establishment of an Australian Sustainable Healthcare Unit to lead and coordinate initiatives and collaboration nationwide.33 Australia's recent bushfire smoke-related and thunderstorm asthma epidemics were climate change and air pollution driven disasters of national and/or state level significance. Both events tested public health system preparedness and responsiveness and capacity to prevent and control environmental health hazards. We support the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangement's recommendations, specifically those pertaining to community education, air quality and health.37 Further, we endorse Vardoulakis et al.'s38 perspective that consistency of air quality information and related public health advice across jurisdictions in Australia is essential. We support their call for an independent national expert committee on air pollution and health protection to be established to support environmental health decision making in Australia. Likewise, the impact of climate change (longer pollen seasons, more extreme weather events) on asthma prevalence and severity needs to prioritised in public health planning and surveillance efforts. Notably, the current National Asthma Strategy (2018) is mute on climate change and air pollution. Australians voted for action on climate change in the 2022 federal election. The evidence is clear, we need rapid transition from fossil fuel toward renewable-energy powered systems, including net zero healthcare systems, which will provide benefits for public health, climate and economy. Yet, it remains to be seen whether the pace of change envisaged in the Climate Change Bill 2022 is sufficiently fast, or whether new coal and gas generation and mining projects will be phased out. Continued failure to rapidly act on the climate-air pollution-fossil fuel triad in Australia is likely to result in increased asthma prevalence and severity and exert an inexorable toll on the health, social and economic wellbeing of future generations. Asthma is just the tip of the iceberg. Health and medical groups have a key role in helping chart a new course with the incoming federal government to avert the cascading impacts of this ubiquitous climate-driven public health crisis. Open access publishing facilitated by Deakin University, as part of the Wiley - Deakin University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians. None. The authors declare no conflicts of interest except Rebecca Patrick. Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

Gaining Acceptance of Novel Plant Breeding Technologies.

BackgroundClimate change can influence malaria incidence directly and indirectly, impacting vector and parasite dynamics, along with socioeconomic factors influencing malaria risk. In Zimbabwe there is a paucity of research linking climate change, environmental factors, and malaria incidence, hindering coordinated efforts for malaria elimination. Accordingly, the aim of the study was to explore the link between climate change, environmental factors, and malaria incidences, from 2010 to 2022, in Chiredzi district, Zimbabwe.MethodsA transdisciplinary approach was applied, combining quantitative weather data from weather stations, malaria incidence data and insights from focus group discussions which were used to glean people’s perceptions and knowledge of climate change and malaria in Chiredzi District. Participatory mapping showing hot spots of malaria incidence were also utilized. Statistical analysis in MATLAB was used to analyse the weather and malaria data and a P-value of 0.0479 was obtained which is deemed as statistically significant. ATLAS.ti was used to qualitatively analyse data from the focus group discussions.ResultsKey results from the study show evidence of climate change in Chiredzi district manifesting through an increase in rainfall, increase in temperature, change in seasons and extreme weather patterns. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between changes in climate and an increase in malaria incidence. However, in some years the relation is negative, and this can be attributed to other factors. Similarly, malaria incidence is also related to other socioeconomic and environmental factors such as poverty and migration which are further exacerbated by climate change. Malaria incidence is also attributed to other environmental and socio-economic factors.ConclusionsFurther studies with extended datasets that span a longer period need to be carried out. Likewise forecasting malaria incidence based on current climate, environmental and socio-economic conditions is crucial for advocating transformative malaria prevention programs, emphasizing the importance of inclusive partnership and adaptation to a changing climate. New malaria prevention programs that consider the impact of a changing climate on malaria, local environmental and socio-economic factors are urgently needed.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-025-05624-y.

![Figure][1] In August 2009, the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) held its 36th Congress in Kyoto in the same convention centre where the historic Kyoto Protocol was drawn up 12 years earlier. The symbolism of this coincidence was not missed by Malcolm Gordon, the Chair of

Water is indeed a medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystem particularly since any negative impact thereon has ripple effect on almost everything else. The change in frequency, intensity and patterns in rainfall, as well as change in temperature has implication for replenishment of groundwater storage. However, groundwater-residence times can range from days to tens of thousands of years or more, which delays and disperses the effects of climate and challenges efforts to detect responses in the groundwater to climate variability and change. Hence, understanding the potential effects of climate variability and change on groundwater is more complex than it is on surface water. Several studies relating to the effect of climate change on surface water bodies have been undertaken while very little research exists on the potential effects of climate change on groundwater. This literature review aims to collate and depict work done previously on climate change impact on groundwater, with focus on Southern Africa and to serve as a prelude to a research study on what and how appropriate response measures should be taken. A simplistic empirical relationship between mean annual rainfall and recharge was used in research to show that decrease in rainfall over the central parts of Southern Africa could have dire consequences for groundwater dependent communities. Findings were that 20% decrease in mean annual rainfall volumes could translate to an 80% decline in recharge for areas that currently receive 500 mm rainfall per annum or less. Other studies show that the sea-level rise that accompanies climate change will reduce the freshwater supply in many coastal communities, by infiltrating groundwater and rendering it brackish and undrinkable without excessive treatment. This shows that the impact of climate change on groundwater may be in terms of quality such as deterioration of water by saline intrusion or in terms of quantity.

Chapter 5: Law and regulation

Australia's political engagement on health and climate change: the MJA-Lancet Countdown indicator and implications for the future.

Sea-level rise from a warming climate threatens to inundate coastlines around the world.1 But some of the world’s most vulnerable coasts—those fringing flat delta plains, mainly in Southeast Asia—face the far more immediate threat of sinking land.2 Induced mainly by human activities on a local rather than global scale, this phenomenon, known as land subsidence, can outpace sea-level rise substantially. Indonesia’s biggest city, Jakarta, is sinking at an average rate of 5–10 cm per year,3 much faster than the global rate of sea-level rise, which clocks in at 3.2 mm per year, according to the recent estimates.1 Should subsidence in Jakarta continue unabated, the city could sink up to 6 m by the end of the century, according to JanJaap Brinkman, a water management specialist with Deltares Research Institute in Delft, the Netherlands.

Effects of global and climate change on the freshwater-seawater interface movement in a Mediterranean karst aquifer of Mallorca Island

This study investigates how enhancing gender inclusion affects inequality in 42 African countries for the period 2004–2014. The empirical evidence is based on the generalised method of moments. Three inequality indicators are used, namely, the Gini coefficient, Atkinson index, and Palma ratio. The two gender inclusion measurements used include female labour force participation and female employment. The following main findings are established. There are positive net effects on inequality from the enhancement of gender inclusion dynamics. An extended threshold analysis is used to assess critical masses at which further increasing gender inclusion enhances inequality. The established thresholds are as follows: (a) 55.555 “employment to population ratio, 15+, female (%)” for the nexus with the Gini coefficient. (b) 50 “labour force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)” and between 50 and 55 “employment to population ratio, 15+, female (%)”, for the Atkinson index. (c) 61.87 “labour force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)” for the Palma ratio. These established thresholds are worthwhile for sustainable development because, beyond the critical masses, policymakers should complement the gender inclusion policy with other measures designed to reduce income inequality. Some complementary measures that can be taken on board beyond the established thresholds could focus on enhancing, inter alia, information and communication technology, infrastructural development, financial inclusion, and inclusive education.