Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Estonia

Abstract

Because of its geography, wide coastal areas, water resources, forests, and wetlands, the environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. Therefore, the vulnerability and adaptation assessments focused on these sectors. This chapter gives preliminary results of our study. The CERES-Barley and SPUR2 models were used to assess crop productivity. A sea level rise of 1.0 m was used to evaluate the responses of the physical and natural systems in the low-lying coastal territories in the West Estonian Plain and the West Estonian Archipelago. To estimate the responses of forests to proposed climate change scenarios, two case study areas with different types of climate (continental and maritime) were selected and a modified forest gap model was used. In addition, an analysis was conducted using paleogeographical data from Estonia and neighboring areas. These data indicate that between 7,000 and 5,000 years ago (Holocene “climatic optimum’) the temperatures in Estonia were similar to predicted future temperatures. Thus we can compare the state of ecosystems in the past with those predicted for future global climate change.