Volta basin precipitation and temperature climatology: evaluation of CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations

Abstract

Here, an evaluation of nine simulations of the regional climate models (RCM) performed within the frame of CORDEX-Africa Project to reproduce the Volta Basin climatology (1971–2005) is presented. Performance metrics of climatological means were computed from annual, seasonal, and monthly total values which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the model outputs with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature evaluated over three sub-domains (the Guinea Coast, the Soudano-Sahel, and the Sahel) within the basin. The results reveal pronounced influence of the GCM-derived boundary conditions at homogeneous zones, for example, CNRM-induced model overestimations over the Sahel. A good replica of the spatial distribution of climatic parameters particularly for temperature with biases within 0.1 °C and obvious wet bias for precipitation up to 40% is detected predominantly over the Sahel with widespread differences in spatial extent and intensities. A better performance is obtained for summer and fall but worse in spring for precipitation. The analysis showed that the basic characteristics of the West African climate are reasonably reproduced by the models, including its variability in sign, amplitude, and spatial extent, but also, there are recognized deficiencies of the model simulations for some selected metrics, regions, and seasons. The study emphasizes on individual model skills than in ensemble performance, and CanESM2-RCA4 and NorESM1-RCA4 RCMs were realized to replicate best the observed dataset so these models are recommended for impact studies over the basin for most seasons. Results achieved will be valuable in the choice of GCMs/RCMs for impact study over the basin, and we conclude that this may also depend on the focus of interest, whether it is a study on variability and process representation or region of study or timescales.