Volcanic activity before and after large tectonic earthquakes: Observations and statistical significance

Abstract

The study of volcanic triggering and interaction with the tectonic surroundings has received special attention in recent years, using both direct field observations and historical descriptions of eruptions and earthquake activity. Repeated reports of clustered eruptions and earthquakes may imply that interaction is important in some subregions. However, the subregions likely to suffer such clusters have not been systematically identified, and the processes responsible for the observed interaction remain unclear. We first review previous works about the clustered occurrence of eruptions and earthquakes, and describe selected events. We further elaborate available databases and confirm a statistically significant relationship between volcanic eruptions and earthquakes on the global scale. Moreover, our study implies that closed volcanic systems in particular tend to be activated in association with a tectonic earthquake trigger. We then perform a statistical study at the subregional level, showing that certain subregions are especially predisposed to concurrent eruption–earthquake sequences, whereas such clustering is statistically less significant in other subregions. Based on this study, we argue that individual and selected observations may bias the perceptible weight of coupling. The activity at volcanoes located in the predisposed subregions (e.g., Japan, Indonesia, Melanesia), however, often unexpectedly changes in association with either an imminent or a past earthquake.