Visions of the Future during Political Transitions

Abstract

white Afrikaners during the political transition in South Africa in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Its sources rely on opinion surveys, election results, political party pronouncements, academic analyses, and personal observations in lectures, group discussions, and formal interviews throughout this period. The article seeks to explore what can be learned from the negotiated settlement of a seemingly intractable ethnoracial conflict for the unresolved strife in the Middle East. When and why did a privileged ruling group consent to negotiate itself out of power? What divisions occurred and how were internal cleavages handled? How was the historic compromise marketed to a skeptical constituency? What role did civil society and dissidents play in the change? In short, can the South African “miracle” be replicated in the Middle East? Many activists advocate similar antiapartheid strategies (divestment, boycott) against Israel and assume that strong pressure would produce similar outcomes. There is nothing wrong with such idealistic optimism, except that it may foster illusions. The underlying assumption that the South Africa model of conflict resolution readily lends itself to export ignores unique historical circumstances. It may actually retard necessary new solutions by clinging to visions or processes of negotiation that may not work in another context. Above all, in South Africa an entire regime had to be changed, while in Israel the occupation and the status of the territories is the main contentious issue. Therefore, a more nuanced understanding of differences and similarities may enhance new approaches.