VERIFIKÁCIA VYBRANÝCH MODELOV PREDIKCIE BANKROTU V AUTOMOBILOVOM PRIEMYSLE SLOVENSKEJ REPUBLIKY

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to compare selected ex ante methods that serve to predict financial health or financial distress. The introductory part contains theoretical knowledge from this issue, a description of selected prediction models. In the next part, the goal of the contribution and the methodology of solving the contribution are presented. The following is an interpretation of the results of the application of selected prediction models when assessing the financial health of companies operating in the field of automobile production in the Slovak Republic. The data matrix consists of financial and accounting indicators of 351 enterprises. The result is a comparison of applied prediction models. Purpose of the article The purpose of this article is to compare selected ex ante methods that indicate the possibility of bankruptcy. These methods are applied to manufacturing companies operating in the field of automobile production in the territory of the Slovak Republic. Methodology/methods In the presented article, selected ex ante methods were used to predict bankruptcy and assess the financial health of companies. Among the prediction methods, the Altman model was chosen, which is considered the founder of financial forecasting and is the most widely used prediction model. Furthermore, the prediction models were selected to match the economic conditions of the country in which the selected models are applied. For that reason, the selection was narrowed down to the area of V4 countries. A model based on discriminant analysis, logit and probit was selected for comparison. Scientific aim The scientific goal of this article is to compare the results of individual methods and the possibilities of interpreting the results from the point of view of assessing the financial health of selected samples of enterprises in the field of automobile production in the Slovak Republic. Findings It follows from the results of individual prediction models that two prediction models (IN05 and Gulkov's model) evaluate enterprises as prosperous, two prediction models (Zmijevský and Pociech et al.) evaluate them as not prosperous, and Altmanov on average characterized enterprises as located in the gray zone, i.e. they are neither among prosperous enterprises nor among non-prosperous enterprises. The results point to the ambiguity of financial health prediction results. Conclusion The focus of the submitted contribution is the analysis and prediction of the financial health of companies using known prediction models to predict the bankruptcy of companies operating in the automotive industry in Slovakia. By comparing the results of individual prediction models, we can state that the results do not match. As part of further research, we will focus on the creation of a prediction model using mathematical-statistical methods, whose prediction ability will be high and will take into account the conditions in the automotive industry in the territory of the Slovak Republic.