Verification of reproductivity of 137Cs activity concentration in the database by an ocean general circulation model

Abstract

Radioactive cesium (137Cs) is distributed in the global ocean due to global fallout from atmospheric nuclear tests, release from reprocessing plants in Europe, and supply to the ocean due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. In order to detect future contamination by radionuclides, it is necessary to understand the global distribution of radionuclides such as 137Cs. For this purpose, the IAEA is compiling a database of observation results (MARIS). However, since the spatio-temporal densities of observed data vary widely, it is difficult to obtain a complete picture from the database alone. Comparative validation using ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulations is useful in interpreting these observations, and global ocean general circulation model (CESM2, POP2) simulations were conducted to clarify the behavior of 137Cs in the ocean. The horizontal resolution is 1.125° longitude and 0.28° to 0.54° latitude. The minimum spacing near the sea surface is 10 m, and the spacing increases with depth to a maximum of 250 m with 60 vertical levels. Climatic values were used for driving force. As a source term for 137Cs to the ocean, atmospheric fallout from atmospheric nuclear tests was newly established based on rainfall data and other data, and was confirmed to be more reproducible than before. Furthermore, the release from reprocessing plants in Europe and the leakage due to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant were taken into account. 2020 input conditions were assumed to continue after 2020, and calculations were performed from 1945 to 2030. The simulated 137Cs activities were found to be in good agreement, especially in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, where the observed densities are large. On the other hand, they were underestimated in the Southern Hemisphere, suggesting the need for further improvement of the fallout data. 137Cs concentrations from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in March 2011 were generally in good agreement, although the reproducibility remained somewhat problematic due to insufficient model resolution. In other basins, the concentration characteristics were able to be determined, although the observed values were insufficient. Radioactivity concentrations of atmospheric nuclear test-derived 137Cs may continue to be detected in the global ocean after 2030. The results of this simulation are useful for planning future observations to fill the gaps in the database.