Abstract
Situation field forecast and rainfall forecast in typical numerical forecast models including EC (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), t639 (T639 Global Forecast System) and Japanese model were verified by set statistics and TS (Threat Score) scoring based on 8 cases of Mongolian cyclone-induced snowstorm in Jilin Province in this paper. As shown by the results, for the forecast of Mongolian cyclone location and intensity, EC has significantly higher accuracy than Japanese model and t639, and there is a high likelihood that it forecasts the southerly cyclone location, relatively fast movement and comparatively weak intensity within 72 hours; for snowfall forecast, Japanese model shows significantly higher accuracy than other models, especially it has obviously stronger ability to forecast the heavy rainfall above snowstorm than other models, while WRF model (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) has strong forecast ability of normal snowfall; for normal snowfall, the 72-hour missing forecast rate is higher than false forecast rate in all the models.
Highlights
Snowstorm is one of the major meteorological disasters in winter in Jilin Province, which often brings serious influence on traffic, agricultural facilities and animal husbandry [1] [2]
Situation field forecast and rainfall forecast in typical numerical forecast models including EC (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), t639 (T639 Global Forecast System) and Japanese model were verified by set statistics and TS (Threat Score) scoring based on 8 cases of Mongolian cyclone-induced snowstorm in Jilin Province in this paper
As shown by the results, for the forecast of Mongolian cyclone location and intensity, EC has significantly higher accuracy than Japanese model and t639, and there is a high likelihood that it forecasts the southerly cyclone location, relatively fast movement and comparatively weak intensity within 72 hours; for snowfall forecast, Japanese model shows significantly higher accuracy than other models, especially it has obviously stronger ability to forecast the heavy rainfall above snowstorm than other models, while WRF model (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) has strong forecast ability of normal snowfall; for normal snowfall, the 72-hour missing forecast rate is higher than false forecast rate in all the models
Summary
Snowstorm is one of the major meteorological disasters in winter in Jilin Province, which often brings serious influence on traffic, agricultural facilities and animal husbandry [1] [2]. The inspection of numerical forecast products is conducive to deepening the understanding of numerical model, so it is an effective way to use preferred numerical forecast products to improve weather forecast accuracy It can provide some reference for research on the explanative application of numerical forecast products. Situation field and rainfall forecast were verified, EC, t639 and Japanese model were verified by situation field forecast, and EC fine mesh, t639, German model, Japanese model and WRF were verified by rainfall forecast, so as to provide better reference for the application of numerical forecast products and the improvement of Mongolian cyclone-induced snowstorm forecast accuracy. The model uses the Runge-Kutta 2nd and 3rd order time integration schemes and 2nd to 6th order advection schemes in both horizontal and vertical directions.
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