Abstract
Assessment of forecast quality is a critical component for weather model development as well as evaluating the impact on weather sensitive business applications such as renewable energy forecasting, agriculture, insurance etc. This study presents forecast quality results of a high resolution numerical weather model deployed for the country of Brunei at Universiti Brunei Darussalam. We present the monthly accuracy and probability of detection scores for precipitation as well as accuracy scores for Relative Humidity (RH) and Dew Point Temperature (DPT) for the year 2013.
Highlights
A regional weather and climate modelling effort was established by Universiti Brunei Darussalam (UBD) in collaboration with International Business Machines (IBM) Corporation to study challenges in forecasting weather and climate for tropical regions
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system for atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs collaboratively developed by a number of national agencies in USA and is currently supported by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
We present Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for continuous variables such as Dew Point Temperature (DPT) and Relative Humidity (RH)
Summary
A regional weather and climate modelling effort was established by Universiti Brunei Darussalam (UBD) in collaboration with International Business Machines (IBM) Corporation to study challenges in forecasting weather and climate for tropical regions. Brunei Darussalam is located at the northern coast of Borneo The weather in this region is highly uncertain due to tropical dynamics and leads to interesting research problems in the area of climate and weather. The UBD|IBM Centre of Universiti Brunei Darussalam adapted Advanced Research WRF (DTC, 2005) to carry out real time weather forecasting in Brunei. To address orographic influence of complex terrain, 45 vertical levels were used in the numerical experiments out of which lowest ten are in the boundary layer This configuration was placed into operation in November 2011, producing a 48 h numerical weather prediction forecast per day, initialized at 00 UTC using GFS data. MET is a highly-configurable suite of verification tools that can ingest output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system.
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