Variations and causal interactions in the eco-hydrological system of Yellow River basin, China: A Network Perspective

Abstract

The Yellow River basin (YRB), as a crucial ecological corridor in the northern part of China, has experienced profound changes in multiple eco-hydrological processes. However, there is still lack of a global view on the variations and causal interactions in the complex hydro-ecological system of YRB. In this study, a set of eco-hydrological variables, regarding water resources (surface water, soil water, groundwater) and ecological environment (vegetation growth, productivity, water use efficiency) are used to represent the main characteristics of the eco-hydrological system in different sub-regions of YRB. The objective of this study is three-fold. Firstly, the individual variation of each eco-hydrological variable was unraveled using trend analysis. Secondly, network analysis was used to analyze the synergistic variations among variables. Finally, an advanced causal discovery tool incorporating prior knowledge was used to investigate the potential causal interactions in eco-hydrological system. The results indicate the decrease of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) in most parts of the YRB, which is mostly due to the substantial depletions in ground water. The vegetation growth and productivity have noticed prominent increasing trends in YRB, and such increase in the source region is largely due to the warmer climate condition and in the middle reaches is mainly because of the large-scale vegetation restoration. However, the ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is not very optimistic, especially in the source region. The causal discovery method captures the inhibitory effect of evapotranspiration on WUE in the upper and some parts of the middle reaches of YRB. Our study provides a new perspective to recognize the complicated eco-hydrological conditions and their variations in YRB during 2001-2019, as well as the potential mechanisms driving these variations.