Variability in an Optimal Infrastructure Management Policy by Internalization of Seismic Risk

Abstract

During recent years, the possibility that damage at the time of earthquake could change depending on the deterioration condition of infrastructure has been noted through analytical analyses. Faced with such a possibility, management policy should be optimized by internalizing the external elements of earthquake damage, evaluating the appropriateness of management policy for infrastructure, and optimizing the system. In this study, the deterioration process for infrastructure was modelled using the Markov process model, and a methodology to determine the optimal management policy is proposed by considering the two risks: i) the risk that infrastructure fails because of deterioration independent of external elements such as an earthquake, and ii) the risk that changes due to deterioration fails the infrastructure at the time of earthquake. Using an example of the application the following two points are demonstratively shown: i) the optimal management policy would change in the case in which earthquake risk is not considered, and ii) the optimal management policy would change depending on the earthquake occurrence probability in the case in which earthquake risk is considered.