Variability and driving effect of aquatic gross primary productivity across long-distance inter-basin water diversion project

Abstract

Long-distance water diversion projects significantly affect the water resource cycle and allocation of regions. However, many unknowns still exist in water ecosystem functionality and energy flow in large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects. This study focused on the gross primary production (GPP) in the Middle-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China (MRSNWDPC), i.e., the world's longest inter-basin water diversion project. The spatiotemporal distribution, driving factors, and pathways of GPP were comprehensively analyzed based on four years of high-frequency water quality monitoring and satellite re-analysis data from 11 national stations, coupling the Bayesian hierarchical models and multivariate statistical methods. The results showed that the daily average GPP in the main canal of the MRSNWDPC over the years was 2.650 g O2 m−2 d−1, with seasonal peak GPP occurring in summer and generally increasing with the distance along the canal. Five structural equation modeling (SEM) were built to analyze the variations of GPP, revealing the surface pressure (PS) and surface carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2) and pH value were the main driving factors in the main canal. The surface pressure showed significant negative impacts on GPP changes in the canal, while the CO2 and pH showed different direction effects in different sections. The daily average carbon equivalent GPPs in the MRSNWDPC is 0.828 g C m−2 d−1, ranging from 0.600 to 1.028 g C m−2 d−1, and close to the Yangtze River and the East Sea of China. This study provides a scientific basis for a deeper understanding and analysis of the energy flow mechanisms in water ecosystems of mega inter-basin water diversion projects.