Value-Based Global Optimization

Abstract

In this paper, a value-based global optimization (VGO) algorithm is introduced. The algorithm uses kriging-like surrogate models and a sequential sampling strategy based on value of information (VoI) to optimize an objective characterized by multiple analysis models with different accuracies. VGO builds on two main contributions. The first contribution is a novel surrogate modeling method that accommodates data from any number of different analysis models with varying accuracy and cost. Rather than interpolating, it fits a model to the data, giving more weight to more accurate data. The second contribution is the use of VoI as a new metric for guiding the sequential sampling process for global optimization. Based on information about the cost and accuracy of each available model, predictions from the current surrogate model are used to determine where to sample next and with what level of accuracy. The cost of further analysis is explicitly taken into account during the optimization process, and no further analysis occurs if the expected value of the new information is negative. In this paper, we present the details of the VGO algorithm and, using a suite of randomly generated test cases, compare its performance with the performance of the efficient global optimization (EGO) algorithm (Jones, D. R., Matthias, S., and Welch, W. J., 1998, “Efficient Global Optimization of Expensive Black-Box Functions,” J. Global Optim., 13(4), pp. 455–492). Results indicate that the VGO algorithm performs better than EGO in terms of overall expected utility—on average, the same quality solution is achieved at a lower cost, or a better solution is achieved at the same cost.