Value of CT to predict surgically important bowel and/or mesenteric injury in blunt trauma: performance of a preliminary scoring system.

Abstract

To evaluate the performance of a computed tomography (CT) diagnostic score to predict surgical treatment for blunt bowel and/or mesentery injury (BBMI) in consecutive abdominal trauma. This was a retrospective observational study of 805 consecutive abdominal traumas with 556 patients included and screened by an abdominal radiologist blinded to the patient outcome, to evaluate numerous CT findings and calculate their diagnostic performances. These CT findings were compared using univariate and multivariate analysis between patients who had a laparotomy-confirmed BBMI requiring surgical repair, and those without BBMI requiring surgery. A CT score was obtained with an internal bootstrap validation. Fifty-six patients (10.1 %) had BBMI requiring surgery. Nine CT signs were independently associated with BBMI requiring surgery and were used to develop a CT diagnostic score. The AUC of our model was 0.98 (95 % CI 0.96-100), with a ≥5 cut-off. Its diagnostic performance was determined by internal validation: sensitivity 91.1-100 %, specificity 85.7-97.6 %, positive predictive value 41.4-82.3 % and negative predictive value 98.9-100 %. Bowel wall discontinuity and mesenteric pneumoperitoneum had the strongest association with BBMI requiring surgery (OR = 128.9 and 140.5, respectively). We developed a reliable CT scoring system which is easy to implement and highly predictive of BBMI requiring surgery. • Finding of bowel wall discontinuity or mesenteric pneumoperitoneum indicates BBMI requiring surgery. • Arterial mesenteric vessel extravasation requires surgery when in association with other CT findings. • Our CT scoring system has excellent diagnostic performance in predicting BBMI requiring surgery.