Validation of the CREST model and comparison with SCAI shock classification for the prediction of circulatory death in resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Abstract

We validated the CREST model, a 5 variable score for stratifying the risk of circulatory aetiology death (CED) following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and compared its discrimination with the SCAI shock classification. Circulatory aetiology death occurs in approximately a third of patients admitted after resuscitated OHCA. There is an urgent need for improved stratification of the patient with OHCA on arrival to a cardiac arrest centre to improve patient selection for invasive interventions. The CREST model and SCAI shock classification were applied to a dual-centre registry of 723 patients with cardiac aetiology OHCA, both with and without ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), between May 2012 and December 2020. The primary endpoint was a 30-day CED. Of 509 patients included (62.3 years, 75.4% male), 125 patients had CREST = 0 (24.5%), 162 had CREST = 1 (31.8%), 140 had CREST = 2 (27.5%), 75 had CREST = 3 (14.7%), 7 had a CREST of 4 (1.4%), and no patients had CREST = 5. Circulatory aetiology death was observed in 91 (17.9%) patients at 30 days [STEMI: 51/289 (17.6%); non-STEMI (NSTEMI): 40/220 (18.2%)]. For the total population, and both NSTEMI and STEMI subpopulations, an increasing CREST score was associated with increasing CED (all P < 0.001). The CREST score and SCAI classification had similar discrimination for the total population [area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) = 0.72/calibration slope = 0.95], NSTEMI cohort (AUC = 0.75/calibration slope = 0.940), and STEMI cohort (AUC = 0.69 and calibration slope = 0.925). Area under the receiver operating curve meta-analyses demonstrated no significant differences between the two classifications. The CREST model and SCAI shock classification show similar prediction results for the development of CED after OHCA.