Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

Abstract

This article examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left–right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. Spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, however, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the USA. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia's stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.本文研究了2013年澳大利亚联邦选举，以检验两种竞争的投票选择：空间政治和共价议题。作者使用了2013年澳大利亚选举数据进行分析，发现空间政治（用政党认同和左右光谱自定位来测量）和共价议题都对选举的选择有重要影响。不过，空间测量比共价议题更能解释投票的选择，这和英国、加拿大及美国近年的研究形成对照。对这些差异的解释是推理性的，但跟澳大利亚稳定的政党及选举制度有关，包括义务投票、选举频率之类。澳大利亚选民面临着沉重的信息负担，由此而导致了对空间启发的依赖要大于其他地方。