Vaccine efficacy trials for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever: Insights from modelling different epidemiological settings

To determine the sample size necessary to evaluate the efficacy of a vaccine in a population. An equation was coded into a computer spreadsheet to compare the traditional sample size calculation with that needed when evaluating the efficacy of a vaccine applied in a population. The traditional approach used to conservatively estimate sample size necessary to detect a given difference in group proportions potentially greatly underestimates the number of animals needed for vaccine efficacy (VE) trials. In VE trials, it is necessary to estimate the effect of population-level vaccination prior to estimating sample size. In VE trials, as incidence proportion in the population or herd decreases or VE decreases, necessary sample size increases. In designing a clinical or field trial, such as one to evaluate the efficacy of a vaccine against an infectious disease in a population, one needs to approach sample size calculations in a nontraditional manner. The proportion of the population vaccinated, disease transmission dynamics, and VE will affect the incidence in the nonvaccinated and vaccinated groups and, hence, sample size. Thus, estimation of the effect of the vaccination on the population must be made prior to calculating sample size. Otherwise, sample size and the power to identify VE will be insufficient.

GFR Decline as an End Point in Trials of CKD: A Viewpoint From the FDA

Introduction
\nMalaria is caused by intracellular organisms that belong to the genus Plasmodium. In 2015, there were an estimated 438,000 deaths and 214 million clinical illnesses due to malaria infection, of which the majority were in sub-Saharan African children below five years of age. Amongst the five species that are known to infect humans, Plasmodium falciparum causes the most severe disease, mostly in children and pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite malaria control programs being operational for many years, malaria elimination in most endemic regions is far from being achieved. Vaccination is considered the most cost effective method of preventing infectious diseases. To date, there are no effective vaccines available for parasitic infections, despite the existence of strong evidence of acquired immunity in most parasitic infections studied. It is therefore highly likely that the addition of an effective tool such as a vaccine to the current malaria control strategy would have a strong positive impact on our ability to control this disease. In the first part of this thesis, we aimed to investigate the vaccine efficacy as well as the cellular and humoral immunity of African paediatric volunteers vaccinated with the most clinically advanced malaria vaccine; the RTS, S/AS01.
\n Meanwhile, novel vaccination and testing approaches are being pursued to improve or replace the recombinant subunit malaria vaccine approach to meet the goals formulated in the Malaria Vaccine Roadmap of WHO (http://www.who.int/immunization/topics/malaria/ vaccine_roadmap/en). These goals strategized that by 2030, licensed vaccines targeting Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax should encompass the following two objectives, for use by the international public health community:
\ni)\tFirst, it should have a protective efficacy of at least 75 percent against clinical malaria and be suitable for administration to appropriate at-risk groups in malaria- endemic areas.
\nii)\tSecondly, it should reduce transmission of the parasite and thereby substantially reduce the incidence of human malaria infection; enable elimination in multiple settings and be suitable for administration in mass campaigns.
\nCurrently, the most promising candidate seems to be the whole malaria sporozoite approach, which is formed of cryopreserved, purified whole live-attenuated (either by irradiation or genetic attenuation) sporozoites. One of the novel tools used to analyze induced vaccine efficacy in sub-Saharan Africa experimentally vaccinated volunteers is controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). Many CHMIs using infectious mosquito bites or purified sporozoites have been successfully conducted in the USA and Europe over many years, but this approach had not been employed in sub-Saharan Africa until 2012. The aim of the second part of this thesis was to describe the potential of using CHMI as a tool to accelerate malaria vaccine development in sub-Saharan Africa and to dissect malaria- specific immunity induced by CHMI based on our trial conducted in 2012 in Bagamoyo.
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\nMethods and findings
\nIn the first part of this thesis (Chapter 4), the aim was to investigate safety, efficacy, cellular and humoral immunity in RTS,S/AS01 vaccinated Tanzanian paediatric populations. Adverse events were used to determine the safety of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in this age group (paper I), ELISA to measure the vaccine-induced CS-specific antibodies and Luminex to measure vaccine-induced cytokine responses (paper II and III). Furthermore, flow cytometry was used to investigate vaccine-induced cellular immune responses (paper III). We also looked into the implications and practicalities of immunological sampling in the African paediatric population. We did community sensitization and collected blood samples from 400 children for immunological study (paper IV). We showed that in 6-12 week old infants, vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria 14 months after first vaccination was 30.1% (95% CI, 23.6 to 36.1) in the intention-to-treat (ITT) and 31.3% (97.5% CI, 23.6 to 38.3) in the per-protocol (PP) population. Furthermore, the vaccine efficacy against severe malaria was 26.0% (95% CI, −7.4 to 48.6) and 36.6% (95% CI, 4.6 to 57.7) in the ITT and PP populations, respectively. The safety of the vaccine in terms of serious adverse events showed similar trends in both study groups. We identified two main RTS,S/AS01 vaccine induced cellular immune mechanisms:- (i) Th1-related responses such as CS-specific IFN-g, GM-CSF and IL-15 are associated with protection and (ii) Th2-related responses mediated by CS-specific IL5 and RANTES are associated with increased odds of malaria. Moreover, antibody avidity alone did not predict protective efficacy in the current study. The induction of RTS, S/AS01 protective Th1 and pro-inflammatory responses was lower in infants compared to children; a scenario that might explain the lower efficacy observed in the infant cohort. Furthermore, we also showed that immunology studies in the paediatric population can feasibly be conducted in African research institutions.
\nIn the second part of this thesis (Chapter 5), we conducted in 2012 the first CHMI using cryo-preserved purified non-attenuated sporozoites in Tanzanian adult volunteers with previous malaria exposure (paper V). In this study, the humoral and cellular immune responses elicited following CHMI were evaluated (paper VI and VII). We used adverse events to determine the safety of the CHMI model in malaria pre-exposed volunteers. We also used blood slide microscopy to define sporozoite infectivity rates, Luminex assays to examine the sporozoite-induced antibodies, B-cell Elispot analysis, single cell RNA sequencing, flow cytometry and cell sorting followed by in vitro stimulation assays to investigate and define the affected innate and adaptive immune responses following CHMI (paper VIII). Our studies showed that: (i) CHMI is safe, tolerable and infective when used in malaria endemic regions, (ii) a single dose of intradermal sporozoite (PfSPZ) challenge elicited long-lived merozoite-opsonizing antibodies and long-lasting innate and innate-like lymphocyte populations, (iii) When we compared Dutch (malaria naïve) and Tanzanian (malaria exposed) subjects undergoing the same challenge study, Dutch subjects responded differently to PfSPZ challenge compared to Tanzanian (malaria pre-exposed) subjects.
\nConclusion
\nSubstantial investment in research and development is needed to develop a highly efficacious malaria vaccine. To date, the recombinant subunit vaccines are yet to give the desired levels of protection for malaria elimination but seem to prevent malaria disease in high transmission settings. Large scale manufacturing, storage and distribution of live whole malaria sporozoite-based vaccines for mass administration need further development. So far, data generated from the PfSPZ vaccine trials conducted in the USA, Europe and in African research institutions imply that malaria naive individuals respond better to malaria vaccines than malaria pre-exposed individuals. The question remains to be, “what exactly constitutes the reason for lack of durable protection against malaria infection in endemic areas?” The most important factor in accelerating future vaccine development is a better understanding of the biology and nature of acquired immunity, which will lead to improved vaccine design. We have established the foundation for using CHMI to assess efficacy of new interventions against malaria and to study the mechanisms of the lack of protection conferred by different malaria vaccines in endemic settings. This study has opened new doors in the field of malaria intervention, whereby malaria vaccine and drug efficacy can be easily tested using CHMI in the target population.
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BackgroundAbout 270 million cases have been confirmed, and 5.3 million fatalities Worldwide due to SARS-CoV-2. Several vaccine candidates have entered phase 3 of the clinical trial and are being investigated to provide immunity to the maximum percentage of people. A safe and effective vaccine is required to tackle the current COVID-19 waves. There have been reports that clinical endpoints and psychological parameters are necessary to consider vaccine efficacy. This review examines the clinical endpoints required for a successful SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and the influences of psychological parameters on its efficacy. MethodsThe main research question was to find out the clinical endpoints that determine the vaccine efficacy? And what kind of psychological parameters affect the vaccine efficacy? The information was taken from several journals, databases, and scientific search engines like Googe scholar, Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science, Science direct, WHO website, and other various sites. The research studies were searched using keywords; SAR-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy, psychological effect on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 vaccine endpoints. ResultsThis review has highlighted various clinical endpoints that are the main determinants of clinical vaccine efficacy. Currently, vaccinations are being carried out throughout the world; it is important to investigate the main determinants affecting vaccine efficacy. We have focused on the clinical endpoints and the influence of psychological parameters that affect the vaccine efficacy in clinical settings. The primary endpoints include the risk of infection, symptoms, and severity of COVID-19, while hospitalization length, supplemental oxygen requirement, and mechanical ventilation are secondary endpoints in the clinical endpoints. Some tangential endpoints were also considered, including organ dysfunction, stroke, and MI. Many psychological associated things have influenced the vaccine efficacy, like the lower antibody titers in the vaccinated people. In addition to that, Short- and long-term stress and sleep deprivation were also found to affect the vaccine efficacy. ConclusionThe review summarizes the important clinical endpoints required for a successful vaccine candidate. In addition to primary and secondary endpoints, auxiliary endpoints and the disease burden also play an important role in modulating vaccine efficacy. Moreover, the psychological perspective also influences vaccine efficacy. Effective follow-up of participants should follow to examine the clinical endpoints to reach any conclusion about vaccine efficacy.

Assessment of immune correlates of severe COVID-19 has been hampered by the low numbers of severe cases in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) trials. We assess neutralizing and binding antibody levels at 4 weeks post-Ad26.COV2.S vaccination as correlates of risk and of protection against severe-critical COVID-19 through 220 days post-vaccination in the ENSEMBLE trial (NCT04505722), constituting ~4.5 months longer follow-up than our previous correlates analysis and enabling inclusion of 42 severe-critical vaccine-breakthrough cases. Neutralizing antibody titer is a strong inverse correlate of severe-critical COVID-19, with estimated hazard ratio (HR) per 10-fold increase 0.35 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.90). In a multivariable model, HRs are 0.31 (0.11, 0.89) for neutralizing antibody titer and 1.22 (0.49, 3.02) for anti-Spike binding antibody concentration. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 rises with neutralizing antibody titer: 63.1% (95% CI: 40.0%, 77.3%) at unquantifiable [<4.8975 International Units (IU)50/ml], 85.2% (47.2%, 95.3%) at just-quantifiable (5.2 IU50/ml), and 95.1% (81.1%, 96.9%) at 90th percentile (30.2 IU50/ml). At the same titers, VE against moderate COVID-19 is 32.5% (11.8%, 48.4%), 33.9% (19.1%, 59.3%), and 60.7% (40.4%, 76.4%). Protection against moderate vs. severe disease may require higher antibody levels, and very low antibody levels and/or other immune responses may associate with protection against severe disease.

BackgroundBNT162b2 is a lipid nanoparticle–formulated, nucleoside-modified RNA vaccine encoding a prefusion-stabilized, membrane-anchored severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) full-length spike protein. BNT162b2 is highly efficacious against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and is currently approved, conditionally approved, or authorized for emergency use worldwide. At the time of initial authorization, data beyond 2 months after vaccination were unavailable.MethodsIn an ongoing, placebo-controlled, observer-blinded, multinational, pivotal efficacy trial, we randomly assigned 44,165 participants 16 years of age or older and 2264 participants 12 to 15 years of age to receive two 30-μg doses, at 21 days apart, of BNT162b2 or placebo. The trial end points were vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 and safety, which were both evaluated through 6 months after vaccination.ResultsBNT162b2 continued to be safe and have an acceptable adverse-event profile. Few participants had adverse events leading to withdrawal from the trial. Vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 91.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.0 to 93.2) through 6 months of follow-up among the participants without evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection who could be evaluated. There was a gradual decline in vaccine efficacy. Vaccine efficacy of 86 to 100% was seen across countries and in populations with diverse ages, sexes, race or ethnic groups, and risk factors for Covid-19 among participants without evidence of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2. Vaccine efficacy against severe disease was 96.7% (95% CI, 80.3 to 99.9). In South Africa, where the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.351 (or beta) was predominant, a vaccine efficacy of 100% (95% CI, 53.5 to 100) was observed.ConclusionsThrough 6 months of follow-up and despite a gradual decline in vaccine efficacy, BNT162b2 had a favorable safety profile and was highly efficacious in preventing Covid-19. (Funded by BioNTech and Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04368728.)

The purpose of review is to provide an overview of the Pox-Protein Public Private Partnership (P5) and highlight the progress of the P5 program, including an upcoming HIV vaccine efficacy trial in South Africa. The RV144 Thai vaccine efficacy trial was the first to demonstrate that an HIV-1 vaccine can prevent HIV acquisition. The P5 vaccine regimen uses an ALVAC prime and protein boost modeled after the RV144 vaccine and adapted for the subtype C virus predominant in the southern African region. This regimen was recently tested in the HIV Vaccine Trials Network 100 phase 1/2a study in South Africa. Based on prospectively defined immunogenicity thresholds, criteria were met to support the launch of an efficacy study in late 2016. The aim of this phase 2b/3 trial will be to improve upon the results of RV144, with increased and more durable vaccine efficacy, to accelerate the potential licensure of a preventive vaccine in southern Africa. The planned P5 efficacy trial, HIV Vaccine Trials Network 702, is designed to test and prospectively define correlates of protection, if efficacious. A vaccine with modest efficacy, vaccine efficacy at least 50%, could have substantial public health impact and significantly decrease the incidence of new infections in heavily burdened areas of the world.

While rapid development and roll out of COVID-19 vaccines is necessary in a pandemic, the process limits the ability of clinical trials to assess longer-term vaccine efficacy. We leveraged COVID-19 surveillance data in the U.S. to evaluate vaccine efficacy in U.S. Government-funded COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials with a three-step estimation process. First, we used a compartmental epidemiological model informed by county-level surveillance data, a “population model”, to estimate SARS-CoV-2 incidence among the unvaccinated. Second, a “cohort model” was used to adjust the population SARS-CoV-2 incidence to the vaccine trial cohort, taking into account individual participant characteristics and the difference between SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease. Third, we fit a regression model estimating the offset between the cohort-model-based COVID-19 incidence in the unvaccinated with the placebo-group COVID-19 incidence in the trial during blinded follow-up. Counterfactual placebo COVID-19 incidence was estimated during open-label follow-up by adjusting the cohort-model-based incidence rate by the estimated offset. Vaccine efficacy during open-label follow-up was estimated by contrasting the vaccine group COVID-19 incidence with the counterfactual placebo COVID-19 incidence. We documented good performance of the methodology in a simulation study. We also applied the methodology to estimate vaccine efficacy for the two-dose AZD1222 COVID-19 vaccine using data from the phase 3 U.S. trial (ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT04516746). We estimated AZD1222 vaccine efficacy of 59.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 40.4%–74.3%) in April, 2021 (mean 106 days post-second dose), which reduced to 35.7% (95% UI: 15.0%–51.7%) in July, 2021 (mean 198 days post-second-dose). We developed and evaluated a methodology for estimating longer-term vaccine efficacy. This methodology could be applied to estimating counterfactual placebo incidence for future placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy trials of emerging pathogens with early termination of blinded follow-up, to active-controlled or uncontrolled COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials, and to other clinical endpoints influenced by vaccination.

BackgroundVaccines play a crucial role in the response to COVID-19 and their efficacy is thus of great importance.AimTo assess the robustness of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) trial results using the fragility index (FI) and fragility quotient (FQ) methodology.MethodsWe conducted a Cochrane and PRISMA-compliant systematic review and meta-analysis of COVID-19 VE trials published worldwide until 22 January 2023. We calculated the FI and FQ for all included studies and assessed their associations with selected trial characteristics using Wilcoxon rank sum tests and Kruskal-Wallis H tests. Spearman correlation coefficients and scatter plots were used to quantify the strength of correlation of FIs and FQs with trial characteristics.ResultsOf 6,032 screened records, we included 40 trials with 54 primary outcomes, comprising 909,404 participants with a median sample size per outcome of 13,993 (interquartile range (IQR): 8,534-25,519). The median FI and FQ was 62 (IQR: 22-123) and 0.50% (IQR: 0.24-0.92), respectively. FIs were positively associated with sample size (p < 0.001), and FQs were positively associated with type of blinding (p = 0.023). The Spearman correlation coefficient for FI with sample size was moderately strong (0.607), and weakly positive for FI and FQ with VE (0.138 and 0.161, respectively).ConclusionsThis was the largest study on trial robustness to date. Robustness of COVID-19 VE trials increased with sample size and varied considerably across several other important trial characteristics. The FI and FQ are valuable complementary parameters for the interpretation of trial results and should be reported alongside established trial outcome measures.

Evaluation of alternative endpoints for ZIKV vaccine efficacy trials

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause serious lung infections in young children and there is currently no available vaccine. We used complementary statistical frameworks to analyze 4 RSV serology measurements in mothers and their infants in South Africa who participated in a phase 3 maternal immunization trial of an RSV F protein nanoparticle vaccine as correlates of risk and of protection against different RSV disease endpoints. We found evidence to support each antibody measurement-encompassing RSV-neutralizing antibodies and F surface glycoprotein-binding antibodies-as an inverse correlate of risk of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory tract infection with severe hypoxia in at least 1 framework, with vaccine-induced fold-rise from the maternal enrollment to day 14 samples of anti-F immunoglobulin G (IgG) binding antibodies having the most consistent evidence. This evidence includes a significant association of fold-rise anti-F IgG with vaccine efficacy (VE); achieving a baseline covariate-adjusted VE of 75% requires a vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise of around 16. Neither multivariable logistic regression nor superlearning analyses showed benefit to including multiple time points or assays in the same model, suggesting a parsimonious correlate. Post hoc exploratory analyses supported adherence of vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise to the Prentice criteria for a valid surrogate endpoint. Our results suggest that the vaccine induced protective anti-F antibody responses. If this finding is confirmed, VE could potentially be augmented by increasing these responses.

The recreational use of legal and illegal drugs has significant effects on immune responses and can potentially modulate susceptibility to infection by a number of pathogens. A number of agents including cannabinoids (marijuana), cocaine opiates, amphetamines, nicotine and alcohol were demonstrated to have potentially adverse effects on the susceptibility to infections, mediated most likely, by adverse effects on immunity. As such, these drugs of abuse could have significant and potentially adverse effects on the vaccination efficacy of a number of vaccines currently on the market and on potential experimental vaccines currently in the pipeline. This review will present an overview on how drugs of abuse potentially impacts immune responses and vaccination efficacy. The emphasis of this review will be the effects of opiate abuse, as exemplified by injecting/intravenous drug users (IDU), on HIV/AIDS and its potential impact on vaccine efficacy trials against this devastating infection/syndrome.

Management of secondary immune deficiencies

To conduct an in-depth investigation of the epidemiology of malaria in the Papua New Guinea (PNG) highlands and provide a basis for evidence-based planning and monitoring of intensified malaria control activities. Between December 2000 and July 2005, 153 household-based, rapid malaria population surveys were conducted in 112 villages throughout the central PNG highlands. The presence of malaria infections was determined by light microscopy and risk factors assessed using a structured questionnaire.The combined dataset from all individually published surveys was reanalysed. The prevalence of malaria infections in the different surveys ranged from 0.0% to 41.8%(median 4.3%) in non-epidemic surveys and 6.6% to 63.2% (median 21.2%, P < 0.001) during epidemics. Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant infection below 1400 m and during epidemics, Plasmodium vivax at altitudes >1600 m. Outside epidemics, prevalence decreased significantly with altitude, was reduced in people using bed nets [odds ratio (OR) = 0.8, P < 0.001] but increased in those sleeping in garden houses (OR = 1.34, P < 0.001) and travelling to highly endemic lowlands (OR = 1.80, P < 0.001). Below 1400 m, malaria was a significant source of febrile illness. At higher altitudes, malaria was only a significant source of febrile illness during epidemic outbreaks, but asymptomatic malaria infections were common in non-epidemic times. Malaria is once again endemic throughout the PNG highlands in areas below 1400–1500 m of altitude with a significant risk of seasonal malaria outbreaks in most area between 1400–1650 m. Ongoing control efforts are likely to result in a substantial reduction in malaria transmission and may even result in local elimination of malaria in higher lying areas.

Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster