Abstract
Background. The complexity of the problem of choosing the direction of development of the national economy and its subsystems in conditions of uncertainty involves the use of decision support systems, which will implement the methods of analysis and forecasting of development of social-economy systems, based on an integrated approach, that takes on board a significant number of factors, both promoting and hampering the development of social-economy systems of the regions of Ukraine. The method of developing scenarios of social-economy systems with the use of cognitive and probabilistic modeling is proposed. Objective. The aim of this work is to improve the method for scenarios planning the development of social-economy systems in the terms of structural changes. Methods. The methods of scenarios planning, cognitive, probability modelling, SWOT-analysis, text-mining was used. A method for developing scenarios for the region's socio-economic system development in conditions of uncertainty is proposed. Its feasibility in decision support systems is substantiated. Results. Based on the analysis of works of domestic and foreign scientists the improvement of the existing method of development of socio-economic development of regions of Ukraine is proposed. The proposed method involves the combined use of methods of scenario analysis of cognitive and probabilistic modeling. The analysis of the obtained forecasting results is carried out. Conclusions . The advantages of applying the composition of methods of cognitive and probabilistic modeling were substantiated during elaboration scenarios of development socio-economic systems. Their use is quite perspective and will improve the system of strategic and short-term planning and forecasting, both at the state and local levels. According to the calculations a quality reliable forecast is obtained.
Highlights
The complexity of the problem of choosing the direction of development of the national economy and its subsystems in conditions of uncertainty involves the use of decision support systems, which will implement the methods of analysis and forecasting of development of social-economy systems, based on an integrated approach, that takes on board a significant number of factors, both promoting and hampering the development of social-economy systems of the regions of Ukraine
В результаті дослідження виявлено, що чинники, які впливають на розвиток соціально-економічної системи регіону, необхідно розглядати не лише з точки зору загальної характеристики окремого фактора, а й в контексті конкретної системи та її цільового спрямування
Когнитивный подход к имитационному моделированию сложных систем // Известия ЮФУ
Summary
The complexity of the problem of choosing the direction of development of the national economy and its subsystems in conditions of uncertainty involves the use of decision support systems, which will implement the methods of analysis and forecasting of development of social-economy systems, based on an integrated approach, that takes on board a significant number of factors, both promoting and hampering the development of social-economy systems of the regions of Ukraine. The advantages of applying the composition of methods of cognitive and probabilistic modeling were substantiated during elaboration scenarios of development socio-economic systems. Their use is quite perspective and will improve the system of strategic and short-term planning and forecasting, both at the state and local levels. Однак кращі результати прогнозів розвитку соціально-економічних процесів на середньо- та довгострокову перспективу в умовах динамічних структурних перетворень можна одержати з використанням методів, що ґрунтуються на різних ідеях, а саме композицій методів морфологічного, когнітивного та сценарного аналізу, ймовірнісного моделювання, дослідження часових рядів, нейронних мереж тощо. Перевагами такого підходу, незважаючи на його загальну складність, є не лише наочність та можливість побудувати причинно-наслідкові зв’язки між явищами, визначаючи ймовірність настання тої чи іншої події залежно від стану змінних, а й можливість виявити, який сценарій є найбільш ймовірним, на основі наявної на момент дослідження інформації
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