Abstract
Recent studies on judgments of learning (JOLs) suggest that beliefs play an important role in the formation of JOLs. The current article introduces a multilevel mediation model to quantify the contribution of beliefs to JOL formation when both JOLs and global belief-based predictions are measured from the same group of participants. Our examples of fitting the multilevel mediation model to hypothetical and published datasets revealed that it is feasible to use the multilevel mediation model to examine the mediation effect of beliefs on the relationship between a cue and JOLs, and quantitatively compare the effects of beliefs and processing fluency on JOLs in one model. Then we compared the current multilevel mediation model and the multilevel moderation model implemented in previous studies, and discussed their similarities and differences. Finally, a data simulation was performed to explain the inflation of Type I error for the multilevel mediation model when we regress global belief-based predictions on the cue, and suggestions about appropriate steps for conducting multilevel mediation analysis are proposed.
Highlights
Judgment of learning (JOL) refers to metacognitive judgements regarding the likelihood of remembering given studied items in later memory tests (Dunlosky and Metcalfe, 2009; Rhodes, 2016), which is a critical component of metamemory monitoring
The within-participant mediation effect is of main interest when we investigate the role of beliefs in the JOL process, because (a) we aim to examine whether beliefs contribute to the cue effect on JOLs within each participant, and (b) the between-participant mediation effect focuses on the averaged variables for all trials including all levels of the cue, which is typically not of interest
We have demonstrated a multilevel mediation model to quantify the contribution of beliefs to a given cue’s effect on JOLs
Summary
Judgment of learning (JOL) refers to metacognitive judgements regarding the likelihood of remembering given studied items in later memory tests (Dunlosky and Metcalfe, 2009; Rhodes, 2016), which is a critical component of metamemory monitoring. It was assumed that cues affect JOLs mainly through their effects on processing fluency during learning, which refers to the subjective experience of the ease or difficulty of information processing (Hertzog et al, 2003; Castel et al, 2007; Rhodes and Castel, 2008). Mueller et al (2013, 2014b, 2016) and Mueller and Dunlosky (2017) demonstrated that people’s beliefs about how given cues affect performance could play an important role in their effects on JOLs. For example, Multilevel Mediation Model and Beliefs
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