Abstract
The purpose of this study is to conduct an economic valuation of creating a concrete sea dike system as an adaptation measure to counter the impacts of a rise in sea level using a risk cost-benefit analysis framework. It uses an ex-ante approach with risk considerations for storms, floods, and salinity by specifying probability distribution functions in a simulation process, in order to incorporate these risk factors into the analysis. The results showed that the benefits of storms and floods avoided dominated the dike options. The benefit of salinity avoided was also valuable, with annual rice and aquaculture productivity losses avoided of USD 331.25 per ha and USD 915 per ha, respectively. This study evaluated a range of dike options to adapt to climate change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, showing high levels of benefits compared to costs. The larger in scale the dike system options were, the higher the expected net present values (ENPVs) were. Of the dike alternatives applicable to the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, considering the impacts of sea level rise of storms, floods and raised salinity in soil from flooding, small scale dikes that can subsequently be increased in height should be a priority choice. The sensitivity analyses showed that the ENPVs of dike options were very sensitive with changes in discount rate but were not sensitive with increases in salinized areas at all. The findings provide evidence to support the necessity of the construction of a concrete sea dike system in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, given the context of global climate change.
Highlights
Vietnam is one of five countries that may be the most seriously affected by global climate change and a consequent rise in sea level (SLR)
This study uses a risk cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework to propose an economic valuation of a concrete sea dike system as an adaptation to the impacts of a rise in sea level
The study used the risk CBA framework to assess the dike options proposed for the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD)
Summary
Vietnam is one of five countries that may be the most seriously affected by global climate change and a consequent rise in sea level (SLR). If the sea level rises by between 0.2 and 0.6 m, 100–200 thousand ha of Vietnamese plains will be submerged. According to the MONRE’s forecast, Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) provinces will be seriously affected if the sea level rises by one meter. If rivers rise by 0.5–1 m, the waters will reach the height of the current dike system. Due to the impact of a global rise in sea levels, 15,000–20,000 km of the VMD’s coastal areas would be inundated—nine of its 13 provinces would be completely below water. The current sea dike system in coastal areas cannot effectively protect people and the land when storms and high tides occur at the same time. The construction of a sea dike has to be considered as a potential solution to a rise in sea level
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