Abstract

The China-US trade relation has been plagued by the threat of MFN revocation in the past 10 years and will continue to be haunted by similar threats. This paper tries to assess the stakes of the PNTR in the US-China trade relation, by simulating the removal of MFN with special attention given to Hong Kong's re-export trade and MFA. It has the following findings: (1). Revoking China's MFN in the US improves the welfare of other regions at the expense of the US, China and Hong Kong; (2) The existence of MFA provides the US an opportunity to buffer the damage by relaxing the quota restrictions on textile and clothing on its part, but the effectiveness of this option is diminishing with the phase-out of the MFA under Uruguay round agreement; (3). Ignoring Hong Kong's role in US-China trade over-states the damage done to the US.

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