Urban Growth: A View from the Supply Side

Abstract

Traditionally, models of urban growth have focused on demand factors. Housing has been the primary area of interest since it uses a great deal of land and thus is a major shaper of urban growth and structure. This emphasis on demand is sound in principle: consumer demand drives developer location and land using decisions, since developers' locational choices are derived from consumer preferences. This reasoning will pertain as long as developers can meet consumer preferences without difficulty. In actuality such preferences can only be met, within consumer budget constraints, by working within existing and often constraining institutional settings. This paper explores urban growth, from the supply side by examining residential developer location criteria as obtained from surveys. These behavioral findings are then used to obtain allocation functions for a simulation model. The allocation functions are based on the stated locational preferences of developers. The resulting simulation output is compared with actual growth in the Greater Vancouver Region of British Columbia for the period 1971–1975. The results are encouraging and point up areas where additional work is needed to better test the utility of the behavioral data in forecasting urban growth.