Updating plots to improve the precision of small-area estimates: the example of the Lorraine region, France

Abstract

The sampling intensity of a national forest inventory is usually low. Forest dynamics models can be used to update plots from past inventory campaigns to enhance the precision of the estimate on smaller areas. By doing this, however, the inference relies not only on the sampling design, but also on the model. In this study, the contribution of model predictions to the variance of enhanced small-area estimates was assessed through a case study. The French national forest inventory provided different annual campaigns for a particular region and department of France. Three past campaigns were updated using a forest dynamics model, and estimates of the standing volumes were obtained through two methods: a modified multiple imputation and the Bayesian method. The update greatly increased the precision of the estimate, and the gain was similar between the two methods. The sampling-related variance represented the largest share of the total variance in all cases. This study suggests that plot updating provides more precise estimates as long as (i) the forest dynamics model exhibits no systematic lack of fit and was fitted to a large data set and (ii) the sampling-related variance clearly outweighs the model-related variance.