Unveiling the Catalytic Role of Digital Trade in China’s Carbon Emission Reduction under the Dual Carbon Policy

Abstract

Digital trade (DT), a key component of today’s digital economy, is pivotal in attaining “carbon neutrality and carbon peaking”, essential for low-carbon and high-quality growth. This study delves into the intermediary role of carbon emissions (CE) reduction in DT, analyzing both production and consumption angles, and examines the moderating influences of CE in DT through industrial agglomeration and low-carbon pilot policy. The research employs spatial panel and system GMM models for an empirical investigation. On the production side, the scale and technological effects on CE outweigh the structural impact on emissions. In terms of consumption, the mediating role of urban residents’ consumption upgrading is to enhance the effect of DT on reducing CE by promoting consumption upgrading, whereas the mediating role of rural residents’ consumption upgrading is to promote consumption upgrading but weaken the effect of DT on reducing CE. Regarding regulatory influences, the factor of industrial agglomeration tends to diminish the impact of DT on reducing CE; thus, industrial agglomeration does not amplify the reduction effect of DT on CE. Low-carbon pilot policy(pol)s can enhance the CE reduction effect of DT, showing stronger CE reduction effects in provinces participating in low-carbon pilot programs.