Unraveling the Nexus of Economic Factors: Analyzing the Impact of Trade, Energy Consumption, Electricity Generation, Exchange Rate, and Urban Population on Consumer Price Index in European countries

One of the major concerns in different countries today is to manage inflation and to manage the resources according to it. Even though there are many factors that affect economic growth that can affect inflation, the concern of this research is regarding Consumer Price Index. The first objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between the consumer price index and Agricultural Land, Urban Population, Trade, Military Expenditure, Primary Energy Consumption, Natural Gas Flaring, and Oil–Refining Capacity. This study includes time series data from 1980 to 2020. Johansen's cointegration method is used to find cointegration, and the significance of long-run and short-term variables is tested. The findings of this study conclude that in the case of Germany, normalized coefficients show consumer price index, Agricultural Land, Military Expenditure, Oil Refining Capacity, and Primary Energy Consumption have a positive and significant impact, Whereas Trade, Natural Gas Flaring, and Urban Population has a negative and significant impact on consumer price index. On the other hand, Japan normalized coefficients show that consumer price index, Agricultural Land, and Primary Energy Consumption have a negative and significant impact. Whereas Military Expenditure, Oil Refining Capacity, Trade, Natural Gas Flaring, and Urban Population have a positive and significant impact on the consumer price index, if we talk about New Zealand, their long run coefficient shows that the normalized coefficients show that consumer price index, Oil Refining Capacity, Trade, and Urban Population has negative and significant impact Whereas Military Expenditure, Primary Energy Consumption, and Natural Gas Flaring has a positive and significant impact on consumer price index. Similarly, the results of the Germany-adjusted coefficients show that Military Expenditure and Urban Population have a positive significant, while primary consumption and trade have a negative relationship with the consumer price index. According to Japan and New Zealand, Oil Refining Capacity has a significant and positive relationship with the consumer price index in the short run. The study, therefore, recommends that the governments of New Zealand, Germany, and Japan should take more initiatives to increase their urban population and trade because these activities help to decrease the inflation in New Zealand, Germany, and Japan.

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Trade Balance between Vietnam and Japan: J Curve Effect Test

The purpose of the analysis of the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic factors of Lao PDR from 2012-2022 aims to (1) analyze the fluctuation of macroeconomic factors and exchange rate of Kip/Dollar and Kip/Baht in the Lao PDR from 2012-2021 and (2) the impact of the exchange rate on the macroeconomic factors of the Lao PDR from 2012-2021. By bringing the collected data to summarize, interpret, consider, select and analyze by using descriptive statistical model and inferential statistics to find a value in percentage, parameter value of regression equation with OLS through E-view 12. The analysis results found that: the exchange rate of Kip/Dollar has effect on the Gross National Income (GNI) of the Lao PDR in the same direction relationship, if the exchange rate changes and increases, it means that the kip of Lao PDR is weak. The country will have the ability to compete in terms of price or make the income from exports that change the value of the kip increase and have a continuous effect on the wages of labor in businesses related to exports, investment and the purchasing power of consumers through income and the economic growth increases, lead to export and investment increase. That will result in the increase of the Gross National Income (GNI) of the Lao PDR. The Consumer Price Index of Lao PDR is continuously increasing, if the Dollar /Kip exchange rate increase by 1 US dollar (USD), it will cause the consumer price index (CPI) of Lao PDR to increase by 1.67% in US dollar (USD). For the exchange rate and export relationship of Lao PDR, it shows that if the exchange rate of Dollar/Kip increase by 1 US dollar (USD), it will result in the export value (EX) of Lao PDR increase by 11.15% US dollar (USD). In other side, the Thai/Kip Baht exchange rate is unable to explain the Gross National Income (GNI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Lao PDR's exports clearly, which means that there is no relationship among them, or in other words, the Thai Baht exchange rate does not affect the macroeconomic factors in the model of this research.

Asymmetric impact of oil price and exchange rate on disaggregation price inflation

‘Dog Days’ Full Employment without Depreciation: Can It Be Done?

The research aims to measure and analyze the impact of positive and negative exchange rate shocks on the consumer price index in Iraq by using monthly data using the (NARDL) model. The results showed that there is a joint integration relationship between parallel exchange rates and the consumer price index in the short term. When exchange rates increase by (1%), this leads to an increase in the consumer price index by (0.018%), while when exchange rates decrease or fall by (1%), this leads to a decrease in the consumer price index by (0.031%). In the long term, when exchange rate increases by (1%), this leads to an increase in the consumer price index by (0.027%), while the decline in exchange rates has a significant negative effect on the consumer price index at a confidence level of (1%). When exchange rates decrease or fall by (1%), this leads to a decrease in the consumer price index by (0.150%). The study also recommended increasing control over the currency selling window to limit exchange rate fluctuations by following up on the economic committees concerned with monitoring changes in market prices. Also, banks should keep pace with the development that has occurred in banks in other countries and use exchange systems that are compatible with the Iraqi economy and bear part of the shocks and circumstances it is going through.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of consumer price index and exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1992 to 2023. First, the study carried out unit root test to check the stationarity state of the variables using the ADF method and findings show that the variables have the combination of I(1) and I(0). Thereafter, the study conducted cointegration test using the bounds testing method and findings revealed that the variables have long run relationship. Subsequently, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was applied to estimate the parameters of the model and the results show that in the short run a 1% increase in the consumer price index will result in a 0.004395% significance decrease in economic growth at 5% level. Likewise the long run estimate revealed that a 1% increase in consumer price index results in a 0.085575% significance decrease in economic growth at 5% level. The results also showed that in the short run a 1% increase in the exchange rate will bring about a 0.023529% insignificance decrease in economic growth. In contrast, the long run estimate showed that a 1% increase in the exchange rate would result in a 1.174762% significance increase in economic growth. Additionally, the results also show that the interaction of consumer price index and interest rate has positive impact on economic growth. Based on the results, the study recommended that Nigerian government should address supply-side constraints by investing in infrastructure, boosting agricultural productivity, and enhancing the manufacturing sector which would help reduce the cost of production and stabilize prices, thereby curbing inflation from both demand and supply sides. Likewise, Nigerian government should prioritize stabilizing the exchange rate by diversifying its economy away from excessive reliance on oil export which is the main source of country’s revenue. The economy should be diversified to boost non-oil sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology which can enhance its export base, attract foreign direct investment, and build a resilient economy that is less susceptible to exchange rate fluctuations.

Foreign exchange reserves to maintain currency stability, finance international transactions, provide guarantees against global financial crises, strengthen national credibility, and provide financial flexibility. High foreign exchange reserves will have an impact on the implementation of economic policies to stabilize the domestic currency, diversify the economy, increase competitiveness, and good management of the balance of payments; the state can reduce the risk of a shortage of foreign exchange reserves and the negative impacts that may occur. This study aims to analyze the model of foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. Variables that affect foreign exchange reserves are the exchange rate, exports, the BI rate, and the consumer price index. The VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) approach estimates the model. This study uses secondary time series data in the form of months from January 2017 to December 2021. The research findings are that the consumer price index has a significant positive effect in the short term, while the consumer price index at lag 3 has a significant negative impact. The exchange rate on lag one and lag 3 has no significant adverse effect, but on lag 2, it has a negative and significant impact. The export variable has a negative and significant effect on the three lags. Variable bit rate on lag one and lag 2 has no significant adverse effect, while lag 3 has a negative and significant impact. In the long term, the exchange rate and consumer price index variables substantially affect foreign exchange reserves. The BI rate variable has no significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, while exports significantly adversely impact foreign exchange reserves.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator of consumer price inflation, which has an attendance effect on the extent of savings and, hence, on investment capacity. The literature contains different opinions on the relationship between exchange rate and consumer price index; however, given the uniqueness of each country’s economic environment, it became apposite to focus the bearing of this paper on the South African economic context. Thus, this paper evaluates the effect of currency exchange rates on the consumer price index in South Africa. Time series data on CPI and exchange rates were drawn from the Fusion Media investment database and were analysed using the OLS regression. For the independent variables exchange rate, which is the Rand price against the Dollar, the authors applied lagg-2 given the assumption that exchange rate differences might take up to two months to affect the consumer price index. The authors’ assumption draws from the findings of eminent scholars, which indicate that, given sufficient time, changes in domestic prices would fully compensate for exchange rate adjustments. The analysis showed that exchange rate changes significantly and positively affect CPI within the data’s boundaries. The findings offer academic and practical implications for understanding the theoretical short-term period effect of the exchange rate on the consumer price index within the South African setting and for practical economic policy application for advanced policies to cushion potential negative effects on savings and investment. The paper provides an agenda for further study of the application of expanded time series to evaluate the effect of currency exchange rates on CPI over a longer period to unravel a theoretical difference between the short-term and long-term implications of exchange rates on CPI.

Aperennial topic of discussion among scholars and policymakers is how best to think about a benchmark for macroeconomics as it applies to monetary policy. Should the benchmark for policy analysis be the open economy with international interest rate linkages and flexible exchange rates (after all, major economies are in fact open with flexible exchange rates), or should it be the closed economy in which such linkages and exchange rate adjustments are assumed away? Of course, few if any policy makers would seek to guide policy by ignoring capital flows and exchange rates, but in many cases it appears as though the starting point for analysis is the closed‐economy macro model, these days a variant of the dynamic new Keynesian model. Those who start from a closed‐economy framework often have questions about how “openness” influences the analysis. How does the neutral real interest depend on “global” developments? Is the Phillips curve trade‐off between inflation and domestic output better or worse in the open versus the closed economy? Is “potential GDP” a function of global developments, or only of domestic resources available and domestic productivity? Perhaps most important, how—if at all—does openness influence the optimalmonetary policy rule? Is a Taylor rule the rightmonetary policy for an open economy? In 2002 Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler, and I published a paper in the Journal of Monetary Economics that developed a benchmark (at least in ourway of thinking) dynamic two‐country optimizing macro model of optimal monetary policies in the open economy. Our focus in that paper was deriving optimal policy rules in the two‐country model and assessing the gains from international monetary policy cooperation. In that paper, we emphasized the following implications of the model:

This paper investigates the nexus between renewable energy use, CO2 emissions, exchange rate, and economic development within emerging South Asian nations, namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. It examines annual data spanning from 1990 to 2019, examining key indicators of renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, exchange rate, and economic development. The ARDL bounds test results demonstrate the existence of co-integration among the variables in the long run. The empirical result finds that the renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and exchange rate have a significant impact on economic growth in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in the long run. In India no significant relationship found in the long run. In short run assessment, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka also found same relationship with economic growth and renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and exchange rate. Interestingly, In Pakistan no significant relationship has found in short run estimation analysis. Furthermore, study tried to determine the causality direction by using the Toda Yamamoto granger causality approach, which reveals bidirectional causation between exchange rate and CO2 emission in India. In Pakistan, study also found bi-directional causality among the variables renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth. Finally, this paper emphasizes developing the policy as well as making a concrete decision regarding the renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, exchange rate, and economic development for ensuring sustainable economic growth in South Asian region. Future research could extend this work by including different dimensional data, additional countries, or using alternative or supplementary modeling techniques.

This research analyzes the asymmetric effects of global energy and food prices and monetary variables, including the exchange rate and money supply, on the consumer price index (CPI). The model is intended to differentiate the influence of increases and decreases in global energy and food prices, exchange rates, and money supply which cause inflation/deflation from changes in the CPI. The analysis uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Quantile Regression models on data from January 2001 to February 2023. The study results show that the decline in global energy prices significantly reduces the CPI in the long run. Energy subsidies allow increases in international energy prices not to increase the CPI significantly. Meanwhile, the increase in global food prices causes inflation in the short run. The exchange rate has the most significant effect on the CPI. Depreciation of the rupiah significantly increases the CPI, which means it causes inflation, while appreciation of the rupiah does not have a significant effect. Finally, increases and decreases in the money supply have a considerable positive effect on the CPI, which confirms the logic of the monetarist view that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Efforts to reduce dependence on imports of food and energy commodities are the key to reducing risks when importing energy and food due to rupiah depreciation. Efforts to consistently stabilize the exchange rate can support controlling and stabilizing import prices. Energy and food subsidy policies are vital in controlling inflation due to increased world energy and food prices.

Appropriateness of Inflation Indices for an Open Emerging Economy

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns of Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka forthe period of 1997-2014. GMM approach is used to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns. Variables of the study were T-Bills, Exchange Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Production Index (IPI). The results of study show that T-bills rate has significant negative impact while Exchange rate has a significant positive impact on the Stock Returns of the study period. The results of study show that T-bills rate has significant negative impact while Exchange rate has a significant positive impact on the Stock Returns of Pakistan for the study period. T-Bills have significant negative impact, Exchange rate and Consumer price index having significant positive impact on the stock returns of the India. In the case of Sri Lanka only T-bills rate having significant negative impact on stock returns.

Sharia shares are securities proof of equity participation in a company. On the base of this proof of participation shareholders are entitled to a share of income arisen from the company's business. This concept of equity participation with share rights of operating income does not conflict with Sharia principles. This study aimed to analyze the effect of exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and consumer price index on the Sharia stock index of Asian countries, where the research object was the Islamic stock index of Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan and India. It is known that many factors influence on the stock index movements in a country, including domestic interest rates, foreign exchange rates, international economic conditions, a country's economic cycle, inflation rates, tax regulations, and the money supply. In this study, the authors examine the influence of only three factors – the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and consumer price index. The panel data regression method was used for the period of January to December 2019. The results of the regression analysis shown that the variables of exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index together had a significant effect on the Islamic stock index of Asian countries. The R-squared value was 0.997762, meaning that 99% of the variation in the Islamic stock index of Asian countries could be explained by variations in the variable exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index. The individual test results show that the exchange rate had a significant negative effect on the Islamic stock index of Asian countries. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index had a significant positive effect on the Islamic stock index of Asian countries.