Unraveling the causal relationship between inflation uncertainty and rates of inflation in GCC countries: Evidence from a mixture of causal (linear) relationships models, and (causal inference with panel data)

Abstract

This study investigates the links between rising inflationary pressures and monetary policy uncertainty (Inflation Uncertainty) in the GCC economies. After discovering cross-sectional dependency among the countries as an index of their reciprocal developmental traits, we used the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach. Individual nation research reveals that only KSA has a bidirectional correlation between high global inflation rate pressures and economic policy uncertainty, whereas Bahrain has no causality. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar exhibit bidirectional causality between high global inflation rate pressures and domestic economic policy uncertainties. Domestic economic policy uncertainty has no bearing on KSA's high global inflation rate pressures; thus, there is a one-way causality from high global inflation rate pressures to domestic economic policy uncertainty in KSA. Overall, economic policy uncertainty influences high global inflation rate pressures in these nations, while high global inflation rate pressures and domestic economic policy uncertainty mutually impact each other. Overall, the GCC countries would benefit from an augmented Taylor rule that includes financial stability as an extra monetary policy aim. It is necessary to make a more general adjustment in the model dynamics underlying the shock transmission mechanism. JEL Classification Code: ECM, PNARDL, PVAR, Eviews12, ARDL, NCSS12