Unlocking the Pensions Debate: The Origins and Future of the ‘Triple Lock’

Abstract

AbstractThe ‘triple lock’ mechanism governing the uprating of state pensions is often framed as a transfer from workers to mostly well‐off pensioners, driven by the latter's outsize political influence. Others note that pensioner poverty remains widespread and that the UK state pension remains relatively low compared to other advanced economies. Both perspectives—but especially the first—often omit the historical context and, particularly, the post‐1979 steady fall in the value of the state pension as a proportion of earnings and the resulting increasing dependence on means‐tested benefits. The key insight of the Turner report was that failure to reverse this trend would further erode any incentive to save for lower‐ and middle‐income earners. Reforms that solely focus on the short‐term impacts on current pensioners, rich and poor, risk long‐term damage.