Abstract
When meteorological conditions deviate from the optimal range for human well-being, the risks of illness, injury, and death increase, and such impacts are feared in particular with more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change. Thermal indices, such as the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), can better assess human weather-related stresses by integrating multiple weather components. This paper quantifies and compares the seasonal and spatial association of UTCI with mortality, morbidity, and road accidents in the federal state of Bavaria, Germany. Linear regression was applied to seasonally associate daily 56 million hospital admissions and 2.5 million death counts (1995–2015) as well as approximately 930,000 road accidents and 1.7 million people injured (2002–2015) with spatially interpolated same day- and lagged- (up to 14 days) average UTCI values. Additional linear regressions were performed stratifying by age, gender, region, and district. UTCI effects were clear in all three health outcomes studied: Increased UTCI resulted in immediate (1–2 days) rises in morbidity and even more strongly in mortality in summer, and lagged (up to 14 days) decreases in fall, winter, and spring. The strongest UTCI effects were found for road accidents where increasing UTCI led to immediate decreases in daily road accidents in winter but pronounced increases in all other seasons. Differences in UTCI effects were observed e.g. between in warmer north-western regions (Franconia, more districts with heat stress-related mortality, but hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons decreasing with summer heat stress), the touristic alpine regions in the south (immediate effect of increasing UTCI on road accidents in summer), and the colder south-eastern regions (increasing hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons in winter with UTCI). Districts with high percentages of elderly suffered from higher morbidity and mortality, particularly in winter. The influences of UTCI as well as the spatial and temporal patterns of this influence call for improved infrastructure planning and resource allocation in the health sector.
Highlights
Climate change is altering the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extremes [1]
In a few other cases amplifying universal thermal climate index (UTCI) effects were derived for seasons other than summer, namely for road accidents in spring and fall, children hospital admissions in fall as well as mortality due to external reasons in spring and fall
While few studies have separately examined the effects of weather on morbidity, mortality, and road accidents in Bavaria, this is the first study to compare the effects and consider the integrative effect of UTCI on these three public health outcomes
Summary
Climate change is altering the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extremes [1]. Most interestingly exposure to heat in warm seasons had no impact on hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory reasons in Spanish cities but was associated with higher mortality risks. Higher intensity of weather conditions increased road accidents [30, 35], when temperatures were below freezing in Germany [36]. By combining daily UTCI averages and daily counts of hospital admissions, death cases, and traffic accidents, this report quantifies the impact of UTCI on the population of Bavaria in order to mitigate severe impacts of weather extremes, improve the resilience and preparedness of health care systems, and reduce casualties
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