Unfortunate Electoral Designs for Postconflict Democracies: Lessons from Dayton for the Western Balkans

Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) has resulted in asymmetric decentralization in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in all aspects: political, administrative and fiscal. Decentralization driven by non-economic reasons is rather usual concept, and often the main reasons are political, ethnical or overall country stability. Decentralization model implemented in BiH became huge obstacle not only in reaching efficiency in provision of public services, but also to further economic development. While the purpose of DPA was to stop armed conflict, and while valuable back in time, there is no excuse to keep these solutions for more than 20 years. This paper aims to provide deep insight into experience of selected comparative countries where non-economic reasons initiated decentralization. In addition, it aims to identify patterns and features of administrative, fiscal and political arrangements that perform better in the environment similar to BiH. Analysis of the experience in developed countries identified different models in organizing ethnically divided societies and establishing different forms of cooperation between sub-national government units to increase efficiency. Transitional countries experience shows mixed results in terms of positive effects of decentralization on overall efficiency and citizens' well-being, but there is valuable experience and number of features, which may improve municipal efficiency in BiH as well. Having in mind very limited literature focused on specific BiH context as well as the need to improve efficiency at local community level, this paper takes an important first step in this direction by providing a systematic review of decentralization design in countries that had similar challenges as BiH. The focus of comparative analysis is on the administrative decentralization (territorial organization and responsibility designation), political decentralization (addressing democratic principles) and fiscal independency. Paper has identified certain mechanisms that do not require any or require minor changes in core legislation introduced by DPA. These primarily include activation of cooperation mechanisms already allowed by law as well as improving system of revenue and grant allocation. Democratization still did not reached proper level as mechanisms introduced by DPA do not address rights of minorities, and this has to be changed. Improving municipal efficiency in BiH by applying experience of developed and transitional countries therefore may range from better cooperation according to the existing laws, to substantive changes of legislation.

: Arguably, the Dayton Peace Accords met the initial intent. They provided the structure for ending the bloody conflict and stopping ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The Accords, also known as the Dayton Peace Agreement, were the results of an intensive international diplomatic process which identified and codified the ways and means to end the Bosnian War. Initially agreed upon in November 1995 at Dayton and signed in Paris the next month, the eleven articles addressed governance, economic development, shared military defense and human rights. They also established guiding principles designed to create a lasting peace, build national unity and provide for enduring civil and economic institutions. But, BiH remains divided. It is important to consider two questions in addressing this lack of progress: Why has BiH not met the greater intent of the Dayton Peace Agreement? Even more pressing: Has the Dayton Peace Agreement become a roadblock to further progress in/for BiH? The answer for finding lasting peace and unity lies in renewed diplomatic intervention, constitutional reforms and holding all the former warring parties to their obligations written in the agreement.

The paper lists the major projects of international financial organizations in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) after signing the Dayton Peace Agreement to explore the role of international financial organizations in post-Dayton BiH. It discusses the specific contribution and the role of these organizations in functioning of BiH, including financial assistance, credit means, various funds and projects, which have been supposed to lead to the stable functioning of BiH after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement. The paper explains the role and attentiveness of the Monetary Board in BiH with a focus on its impact on implementation of the international projects. The research question is: “From which sources did the largest funds in BiH come in the period from 1996 to 2020 and how were they related to GDP?”. The paper is based on publicly available data from international financial institutions and the Ministry of Civil Affairs of BiH. The results show that about 71.45 billion dollars entered BiH from international financial institutions through donations, grants, loans, and other various types of assistance. But the funded projects did not have the same priorities every year and in every area. In addition, international funds were used to finance numerous projects aimed at economic recovery and economic development. In the last few years, there has been a change in priorities, and significant funds have been directed to such projects as the judicial reform, institution building through strengthening the capacity of individual institutions, and the reform of particular areas and their approximation to the European Union standards.

More than a decade after the Dayton Peace Accords, the question remains whether peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) will sustain. Assuming that the economic prosperity plays a crucial role for a successful peacebuilding process, this Working Paper addresses the potential and the risks of economic development, focusing on three particular aspects: corruption, informal labor and the brain drain phenomenon. Rob Scheid shows that corruption is an endemic problem concerning governance, civil society, and the economy in BiH. He outlines examples of the various forms corruption takes and discusses steps taken to combat this issue, arguing that corruption’s detraction from economic development prolongs the peacebuilding process. Julika Bake deals with the phenomenon of illicit labor, which is seen as one of the major obstacles to economic prosperity in BiH. She argues that besides macroeconomic recovery and labor policy, the links between local political elites and informal employers have to be taken into account to successfully create formal employment. Simon Runkel addresses the difficult labor situation of young people and the resulting emigration, particularly of the well educated. In his opinion, reforms in the fields of education as well as private investment are necessary to facilitate the return of emigrants and to benefit from the positive long-term effect of the so-called brain drain phenomenon. All three sections of this Working Paper hold that the peacebuilding process would benefit to a great extent from the strengthening of formal economic relations, the weakening of links between the economic and political spheres, especially on a local level, as well as from the creation of job opportunities. Although economic prosperity and sustainable development often seem beneficial they do not appear to be a primary concern in peacebuilding. This paper shows that economic aspects are crucial to the question of whether peace will stay and last in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) started 20 years ago. When BIH’s first free, multiparty elections in November 1990 were won by three dominant nationalist parties, all alike, they engaged in endless nationalistic quarrels. The war in BIH escalated in April 1992, when Bosnian Serbs started to besiege Sarajevo for 43 months, shelling Bosniak forces and terrorizing the civilian population with relentless bombardments. After nearly four years of civil war, with thousands of people killed and over a million people leaving their homes, the war in BIH was brought to an end by the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in 1996. The DPA created the foundation for a new Bosnian state inhabited by three ethnic groups who had lived side by side for decades, but who now seemed to be further apart than ever before. In a way, the DPA legitimized the results of the war, that is it divided BIH into two entities: the Federation of BIH (with 51 per cent of the territory) in which mostly Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks) and Bosnian Croats live, and Republic Srpska (with 49 per cent of the territory) populated almost exclusively by Bosnian Serbs.KeywordsCollective MemoryNews ItemMedium MemoryDaily NewspaperCritical Discourse AnalysisThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Before getting into discussions on juvenile delinquency and juvenile criminal justice provisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), let us give a few introductory remarks related to the recent history of the country. Events that were taking place in the region of ex-Yugoslavia during the early 1990s are widely known and they are usually defined by the following words — crisis, disintegration, and wars. It would not be a mistake to say that the culmination of all these events, especially bearing in mind its duration and severe consequences, took place in BH. When it comes to war in BH, it should be recalled that it ended by the signing of Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA).1 Although the DPA brought war to an end, it also defined a very complex, inefficient and complicated administrative and territorial state structure. From 1995 on BH consisted of two entities, namely the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBH) and the Republika Srpska (RS) that are afforded a very high level of autonomy in exercising their constitutionally defined powers. FBH, as a bigger entity, is even more decentralized by being divided into ten cantons as separate units having their own assemblies and therefore constitutions too. Another separate administrative and territorial unit is represented by Brcko District of BH (BDBH) with a separate legal system including a separate criminal justice system.

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is currently facing a situation where the rule of law (whose promotion and strengthening is one of the European Union’s main priorities in BiH and the wider Western Balkan region), has become an area for the further destabilisation of the country’s political and security situation by dominant local political actors, as the case of Milorad Dodik shows. The reactions of some International Community actors (e.g., the High Representative Christian Schmidt), who aim to prevent further destabilisation, are subsequently questioned, as their (and their decisions’) legitimacy is downplayed by local BiH actors and significant states (e.g., China and the Russian Federation). The aim of this article was thus not only to examine the logic behind Dodik’s long-term political strategy in BiH, but also to demonstrate his capability to subvert the system established by the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) via standard legislative procedure, for the sake of securing his own power position in the country’s political environment. It also analyses HR Schmidt’s use of illiberal means to reach liberal outcomes, and his response to Dodik’s activities of June and July 2023. The unique insights from thirty-nine personalised semi-structured interviews, which took place in parts of BiH (Sarajevo, Mostar, Banja Luka, and Tešanj) in May, June, October and November 2023, and January and February 2024, as part of the author’s ethnographic research, are presented in the article. The interviewed individuals have backgrounds in academia, culture, media and local politics. The analysis demonstrates that Dodik’s actions should be interpreted within the broader context of BiH’s political landscape, where ethno-nationalism is intertwined with power distribution and formalised by the provisions outlined in the DPA. Although his secessionist rhetoric has intensified since 2021, Dodik’s political strategy has pragmatic contours, which means that global geopolitical developments could play a more significant role in deepening the political crisis in BiH. A return to greater interventionism from current HR Schmidt is therefore not an adequate panacea for the country’s ongoing political complexities.

It is well-known that Russia seeks to undermine the Western order in the Balkans, such as supporting Serbs in their rejection of NATO membership for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). However, some assertions of Russia’s influence discussed here show no merit and seem to have been brought to delegitimize the Western installed peace order vital to the stability of the region: the 1-2-3 Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) with one state, two entities, and three constituent peoples (Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats). The meaningless assertions include disinformation against High Representative Schmidt as a Russia man; the misrepresentation of the U.S. -E.U. led electoral reform as the one benefitting Russia; the frequently repeated falsehoods that NATO and EU member state Croatia is aligned with Putin or that some U.S. officials embrace Russia’s values. Such disinformation narratives do not show the ties between the supposed Russian assets and Kremlin, nor do they demonstrate that the alleged pro-Russian actors pursue pro-Kremlin policies. Instead, they tend to be based on the ludicrous claims that the very support for the Dayton categories of ethnic power-sharing reflects the embrace of Russia’s values under President Putin. Striking at the core of the Dayton peace bargain, the anti-Dayton unitarists want the DPA to guarantee BiH’s external borders, while urging the international community to dismiss the DPA designed two-entity state structure (important to Serbs) or ethnic power-sharing (important to Croats) to impose a centralized, unitary state with a majority rule, or the so-called “civic state.” However, besides thwarting (Serb) secessionism and (Croat) separatism, the purpose of Dayton has been to prevent (Bosniak) majoritarianism. The intensity of the debate surrounding the disinformation activities discussed here shows that--though the DPA still remains relevant to the BiH postwar peace and the Western Balkans stability--the consensus on what Dayton is or should be is now collapsing.

This article is an examination of the history of ex-Yugoslavia, more specifically the region of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and its immediate neighbors. A brief history of imperialism, religious influence, and the impact of the World Wars within BiH will lead to a discussion on nationalist-separatism and Balkan independence movements. The article focuses on the drive behind, and the outcome of, the 1992 war within BiH that stemmed from BiH’s desire to be independent from Yugoslavia. The primary perspectives within the article are that of the Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs. Outside actors such as Serbia, Russia, the United States, Pakistan, the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), Muslim terrorist organizations, the United Nations (UN), and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will also be discussed to capture the various stakes and goals of the war. This will transition into a detailed breakdown of various UN and NATO missions, as well as their impact on the citizens and factions within BiH. The missions analyzed within this article will be the Dayton Peace Accords, the United Nations Mission in BiH (UNMIBH), the Stabilization Force (SFOR), the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR), Implementation Force (IFOR), and the European Union Force (EUFOR). Transparency in BiH between parties to the conflict, the success or failure of peace enforcement, and the provision of effective rehabilitation assistance by the international community will be put into question. The article’s conclusion will analyze the value of peacekeeping within BiH as well as address the lasting social/emotional impact on the BiH community.

It is a well-established finding that proportional representation (PR) electoral systems are associated with greater legislative representation for women than single member systems. However, the degree to which different types of PR rules affect voting for female candidates has not been fully explored. The existing literature is also hampered by a reliance on cross-national data in which individual vote preferences and electoral system features are endogenous. In this study, we draw upon an experiment conducted during the 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections to isolate the effects of different PR electoral systems. Participants in the experiment were given the opportunity to vote for real EP candidates in three different electoral systems: closed list, open list, and open list with panachage and cumulation. Because voter preferences can be held constant across the three different votes, we can evaluate the extent to which female candidates were more or less advantaged by the electoral system itself. We find that voters, regardless of their gender, support female candidates, and that this support is stronger under open electoral rules.

ABSTRACTTwenty years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) which brought the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to an end, the dysfunctional nature of the Bosnian state means that the question of how political actors in BiH engage with the DPA as a response to the war remains vitally important. This article argues that moving beyond the ethnicization of politics in BiH enacted by the DPA can be achieved by challenging the understandings of the war which inform the DPA while simultaneously challenging the effects of these understandings in the present. By advancing what I term a ‘deconstructive conclusion’ of the DPA, this article demonstrates the practical utility of Jacques Derrida’s thought for engaging with the legacy of war in BiH.

Spriječiti povratak: Provođenje Aneksa VII Dejtonskog sporazuma za mir u Bosni i Hercegovini (1995-2020)

Since the Dayton Peace Agreement, an international High Representative based in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has been charged with guiding and monitoring the country's peace implementation process. As the High Representative has come to play an increasingly active role in the country and to exercise governmental or public power in his own right, a complex system of ‘public power regulation’ has developed. Pursuant to this system, the public power exercised by domestic governmental authorities in BiH is regulated both through local checks and constraints (e.g. democratic elections and judicial review) and through interventions by the High Representative. In turn, the High Representative has allowed for some regulation of his own public power by international actors and actors/institutions within BiH. However, opportunities for regulating the High Representative are quite limited, raising concerns about the legitimacy of his exercise of public power in the country.

The globalization process of the last twenty years has changed the world through international flows of people, policies and practices. International cooperation to development is a part of that process and brought International Organizations (IOs) and Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) from the West to the rest of the world. In my thesis I analyze the Italian NGOs that worked in Bosnia Herzegovina (BH) to understand which development projects they realized and how they faced the ethnic issue that characterized BH. I consider the relation shaped between Italian NGOs and Bosnian civil society as an object of ethnic interests. In BH, once part of former Yugoslavia, the transition from the communist regime to a democratic country has not been completed. BH’s social conditions are characterized by strong ethnic divisions. The legacy of the early 1990s crisis was a phenomenon of ethnic identities created before the war and that still endure today. The Dayton Peace Agreement signed in 1995 granted the peace and reinforced the inter-ethnic hate between the newly recognized three principal ethnicities: Serbs, Croats and Bosniak. Through the new constitution, the institutions were characterized by division at every level, from the top to the bottom of society. Besides it was the first constitution ever written and signed outside the own country; that was the root of the state of exception that characterized BH. Thus ethnic identities culture survived through the international political involvement. At the same time ethnic groups that dominated the political debate clashed with the international organization’s democratic purpose to build a multicultural and democratic state. Ethnic and also religious differences were the instruments for a national statement that might cause the transition and development projects failure. Fifteen years later social fragmentation was still present and it established an atmosphere of daily cultural violence. Civil society suffered this condition and attended to recreate the ethnic fragmentation in every day life. Some cities became physically divided and other cities don’t tolerated the minority presence. In rural areas, the division was more explicit, from village to village, without integration. In my speech, the anthropology for development – the derivative study from applied anthropology – constitutes the point of view that I used to understand how ethnic identities still influenced the development process in BH. I done ethnographic research about the Italian cooperation for development projects that were working there in 2007. The target of research were the Italian NGOs that created a relation with Bosnian civil society; they were almost twenty divided in four main field of competences: institutional building, education, agriculture and democratization. I assumed that NGOs work needed a deep study because the bottom of society is the place where people could really change their representation and behavior. Italian NGOs operated in BH with the aim of creating sustainable development. They found cultural barricade that both institutions and civil society erected when development projects have been applied. Ethnic and religious differences were stressed to maintain boundaries and fragmented power. Thus NGOs tried to negotiate development projects by social integration. I found that NGOs worked among ethnic groups by pursuing a new integration. They often gained success among people; civil society was ready to accept development projects and overcome differences. On the other hand NGOs have been limited by political level that sustained the ethnic talk and by their representation of Bosnian issue. Thus development policies have been impeded by ethnic issue and by cooperation practices established on a top down perspective. Paradoxically, since international community has approved the political ethnic division within DPA, then the willing of development followed by funding NGOs cooperation projects was not completely successful.

From the perspective of Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) today, the legacy of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) remains mixed. The dominant view is that the DPA is the origin of its political impasse, economic stagnation, and failed nation-building. Yet, it is indisputable that DPA has been successful in preventing the recurrence of a major violent ethnic conflict in BiH. More recently, the failures of Syrian peace talks to yield a durable settlement have evoked the lessons from the DPA. However, most analyses have concluded the parallels with the Bosnian war and its resolution are misplaced given the complexity and severity of the war in Syria. This article argues for a more nuanced approach to distilling the Dayton legacy, particularly when it is employed as a historical analogy. It highlights the usefulness of the DPA as an analogy for successful conflict termination, while offering lessons about the pitfalls of externally imposed consociational arrangements.