Unequal educational outcomes for children with similar early childhood vocabulary but different socioeconomic circumstances.

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In a purely meritocratic society, educational outcomes would reflect ability and only ability. Vocabulary size is a common measure of cognitive ability that predicts educational outcomes but is confounded with socioeconomic circumstances (SEC). In preregistered analyses of the nationally representative UK Millennium Cohort Study data (N = 15,576), we used a series of multiple linear and logistic regression analyses to investigate the predictive value of age-5 vocabulary for age-16 educational outcomes and assess whether socioeconomic circumstance moderated this relation. We show that age-5 vocabulary strongly predicted age-16 educational attainment, even after adjusting for both SEC and caregiver vocabulary (OR = 1.62, 95% CIs = [1.52; 1.72]; β = .22, 95% CIs = [0.19; 0.24]). SEC also predicts educational attainment (OR = 2.05, 95% CIs = [1.92; 2.19]), and modifies the association between vocabulary and educational attainment, whereby a larger vocabulary was most advantageous for those in middle SEC groups (interaction term OR = 1.09 [1.03; 1.15]). Early child vocabulary is a strong predictor of children's educational outcomes - even when controlling for proxy measures of the home environment and genetics. Nonetheless, children who enter school with strong vocabulary skills but disadvantaged socioeconomic circumstances still have only about a 50/50 chance of gaining gateway qualifications at age 16.

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  • 10.31234/osf.io/8kjaf_v2
Unequal educational outcomes for children with similar early childhood vocabulary but different socio-economic circumstances
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In a purely meritocratic society educational outcomes would reflect ability, and only ability. Vocabulary size is a common measure of cognitive ability that predicts educational outcomes but is confounded with socioeconomic circumstances (SEC). Methods. In preregistered analyses of the nationally representative UK Millennium Cohort Study data (N=15,576), we used a series of multiple linear and logistic regression analyses to investigate the predictive value of age-5 vocabulary for age-16 educational outcomes and assess whether socioeconomic circumstance moderated this relation. Results. We show that age-5 vocabulary strongly predicted age-16 educational attainment, even after adjusting for both SEC and caregiver vocabulary (OR = 1.62, 95% CIs = [1.52;1.72]; ( = .22, 95% CIs = [.19;.24]). However, the weight of evidence for the effect was lower than that for the effect of SEC (i.e., SEC was found to have better predictive value. Further, a larger vocabulary was most advantageous for those in middle SEC groups (interaction term OR 1.09 [1.03; 1.15). Conclusions. This demonstrates that even children who enter school with relatively strong language skills are not that likely to gain gateway qualifications if they experience socio-economic disadvantage. Early language interventions may help children to access education but cannot by themselves be expected to counteract the effect of social inequality on life chances.

  • Preprint Article
  • 10.31234/osf.io/8kjaf_v1
Unequal educational outcomes for children with similar early childhood vocabulary but different socio-economic circumstances
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In a purely meritocratic society educational outcomes would reflect ability, and only ability. Vocabulary size is a common measure of cognitive ability that predicts educational outcomes but is confounded with socioeconomic circumstances (SEC). Methods. In preregistered analyses of the nationally representative UK Millennium Cohort Study data (N=15,576), we used a series of multiple linear and logistic regression analyses to investigate the predictive value of age-5 vocabulary for age-16 educational outcomes and assess whether socioeconomic circumstance moderated this relation. Results. We show that age-5 vocabulary strongly predicted age-16 educational attainment, even after adjusting for both SEC and caregiver vocabulary (OR = 1.62, 95% CIs = [1.52;1.72]; ( = .22, 95% CIs = [.19;.24]). However, the weight of evidence for the effect was lower than that for the effect of SEC (i.e., SEC was found to have better predictive value. Further, a larger vocabulary was most advantageous for those in middle SEC groups (interaction term OR 1.09 [1.03; 1.15). Conclusions. This demonstrates that even children who enter school with relatively strong language skills are not that likely to gain gateway qualifications if they experience socio-economic disadvantage. Early language interventions may help children to access education but cannot by themselves be expected to counteract the effect of social inequality on life chances.

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  • Abstract
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Investigating the relationships between chronic ill health and educational outcomes in children
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  • Francisca M Antman

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