Underweight prevalence among children under five in Sri Lanka: unpacking the role of food prices

Once considered as a serious public health issue only in developed countries, now overweight and obesity have dramatically increased in low- and middle-income countries, especially in urban settings (WHO, 2008). The main purpose of this study is to explore the economic incentives for this rapid growth in obesity rates, by studying variations in obesity over time and across geographic regions in the United States. Although a number of researchers and policymakers have devoted significant resources to address the recent rapid rise in obesity in the United States, “the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased sharply since the mid 1970s” (Centers for Disease Control, 2008) and most of this increase occurred in the 1980s and 1990s (Cutler, et al., 2003). More importantly, changes in food prices have also occurred over the past 30 years and have occurred simultaneously with the obesity epidemic (Finkelstein, et al., 2005). In this study, we investigate how the decline in food prices in the last three decades affects the long-run growth of obesity rates. We take the advantage of the large panel data that cover for the time periods with the fastest growth of obesity rates, by using metropolitan samples from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and information on prices of food at home and food away from home from these major metropolitan areas for years 1976 to 2001. Specifically, instead of using absolute food prices, we explore the impacts from changes in relative prices of food at home and food away from home (i.e. food prices relative to prices for a market basket of consumer goods and services in these metropolitan areas), as well as changes in prices of food at home and food away from home on the growth in obesity rates during this time frame. We also control for the changes in contextual factors and changes in value of female in these metropolitan areas. Our findings reveal the important fact that changes in relative food prices can explain about 20 percent of the obesity growth during this time period and such effect is more pronounced for the low-educated. The results of the study provide an interpretation of the long-run growth of obesity rates in urban settings.

Food price volatility often occurs and cannot be avoided, including food price volatility that occurs in Parepare City. The effect of movement or changes in food prices appears to influence inflation, which in turn becomes the purpose of this study, namely to analyze the effect of changes in food prices on inflation in Parepare City. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression analysis. The data used is secondary data in the form of monthly time series from July 2018 to June 2021. The independent variables in this study are the food prices of rice, chicken meat, red chili, chicken eggs and granulated sugar. The results showed that the food prices of rice and chicken eggs have an increasing trend while the prices of chicken meat, red chili, and granulated sugar tend to decrease. The coefficient of determination test results shows that changes in food prices simultaneously positively and significantly affect inflation. The t-statistical test shows that partially changes in food prices of rice and chicken meat have a positive and significant effect on inflation while changes in food prices of red chili, chicken eggs and granulated sugar have a positive but insignificant effect on inflation. This research has implications for public policy to develop food prices stabilization policies, such as food reserve policies, market regulations, incentives for food producers, or social assistance programs to alleviate the impact of food inflation.

This paper focuses on the estimation of changes in economic welfare (real income) on different groups (income deciles) of Hungarian and Romanian consumers following food price changes as a result of accession to the European Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007. It identifies in both countries those consumer groups most vulnerable to food price changes using the most recent, official, post accession data. Slutsky Compensating Variation, based on Laspeyres indexes is employed for a food basket of 16 products. The results show that real food prices have changed with some going up and others falling. However, overall both Hungary and Romania have experienced a rise in real food prices by 9 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. The rise in food prices has resulted in a welfare loss for all income deciles, particularly for those in the lower income groups. Although, in absolute terms, Romanian food consumers seem to be more affected (the decrease in their real income varies between 4 per cent for decile 10 and 12 per cent for decile 1) than Hungarian consumers (0.4 per cent for decile 10 and 2.2 per cent for decile 1), the distribution of the impact is higher in Hungary, a five-fold difference between decile 1 and decile 10 as opposed to a three-fold difference in Romania. This paper focuses on the estimation of changes in economic welfare (real income) on different groups (income deciles) of Hungarian and Romanian consumers following food price changes as a result of accession to the European Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007. It identifies in both countries those consumer groups most vulnerable to food price changes using the most recent, official, post accession data. Slutsky Compensating Variation, based on Laspeyres indexes is employed for a food basket of 16 products. The results show that real food prices have changed with some going up and others falling. However, overall both Hungary and Romania have experienced a rise in real food prices by 9 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. The rise in food prices has resulted in a welfare loss for all income deciles, particularly for those in the lower income groups. Although, in absolute terms, Romanian food consumers seem to be more affected (the decrease in their real income varies between 4 per cent for decile 10 and 12 per cent for decile 1) than Hungarian consumers (0.4 per cent for decile 10 and 2.2 per cent for decile 1), the distribution of the impact is higher in Hungary, a five-fold difference between decile 1 and decile 10 as opposed to a three-fold difference in Romania.

Households are tremendously affected by changes in food prices. The extent of the impact depends on the income of households. This study is undertaken to analyse the impact of food price changes on food insecurity and economic welfare in selected southern African countries (Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Mozambique and Botswana). The Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model is estimated using time series data from the period of 1980 to 2016. The findings of this study showed that food price changes positively affect economic welfare in the long run for the countries. Households that are net food sellers generate a higher income when prices go up. Therefore, food price changes are a gain for these households, especially producers and net sellers. Furthermore, the study revealed that inflation and net trade affect economic welfare for the countries in the short run. As a policy recommendation, the governments of these countries can subsidise food producers, most especially producers of staple foods that are seasonal; this can stabilize food price changes. As a result, both net sellers and net buyers of food can benefit from food prices. In other words, the benefit of food price can spread across to net buyers, not only net sellers. Also the governments of these countries can use monetary policy such as increase in interest rate to combat inflation.

Achieving food security represents a top policy priority around the world given that the levels of hunger and malnutrition have remained disturbingly high. Recent years have seen the nutritional status and food security of millions of people being further undermined by high and volatile food prices.Large and unexpected changes in food prices represent an important risk factor and constitute serious threat to food security, especially in developing countries like Nigeria. The study therefore examined the effects of changes in food prices on food security in Nigeria using monthly and annual time series data over the period of 2000 to 2020.The study used Coefficient of Variation (CV) to estimate changes in food prices (food price volatility) while the Autoregressive Distributed lag(ARDL)Model was employed to determine the response of national food security to changes in food prices. The results show that theprices of most food items witnessed a forward leap between the periods 2000-2006 and 2007-2012with the price of rice almost experiencing a threefold rise. In general, changes or volatility in food prices have been decreasing, with the highest volatility of about 6% recorded in the first subperiod (2000-2006)- a value higher than that of the overall period (4.6% in 2000-2020). Food price volatility was shown to have significant effect on per capita food supply variability and average energy supply dietary adequacy, both of which were used as measures of food security in the study.The significant impact of food price volatility on per capita food supply variability suggests the need for government to provide agricultural price support and inventory management strategies to farmers, particularly the smallholders, who account for a large percentage of agricultural production in Nigeria. Government can also adopt a short term policy mix of establishing regionally coordinated food reserves while strengthening social protection measures and coverage in order to secure national food security.

Beside the mixed evidences on transmission of international food price volatility to local markets and the desirability or otherwise of reliance on stabilisation policy to cushion the effects, very little is known about the key drivers of price spikes and volatility in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper is an attempt to bridge this gap, by focusing on the patterns, drivers, and policy responses to food price spikes and volatility across in Nigeria. The study was based on 16 years panel data on average monthly prices (2001:1 – 2016:12) of major food commodities across local markets in the 36 States of Nigeria, supplemented with monthly series of relevant domestic policy variables, and international prices, among other factors. Data analysis was mainly within the framework of fixed effects models. Findings suggest that food price upsurges in an average Nigeria market is more strongly related to spikes than volatility. International factors such as crude oil price, international food prices, and global beginning stock to use of coarse grains, and domestic policy variables such as real exchange rates, monetary policy rates and narrow money are strong influencers of spikes in the price of one or more food commodities in Nigeria’s local markets. Higher petrol price and food production variability may substantially advance price instability in local food markets. Government policy actions at addressing volatile food prices immediately after the 2007/2008 food crises appeared to enhance food price stability. These findings call for greater attention on management of monetary policy, including the exchange rates, ensuring stable petrol price, limiting food production instability, mitigating spill-over of price upsurges from international markets and building farmers and consumer’s resilience against food price changes, among others, as important pathways to address short and medium-term food price upsurges.

The energy price index is a key economic measure that tracks changes in the prices of energy commodities, such as petroleum, electricity, and gas. This study aims to explore how the energy price index influences the food price index, as both have significant impacts on the economy. The relationship between energy and food prices is complex and affected by various factors. The novelty of this research lies in identifying the time period during which increases in energy prices impact food prices due to inflation. A statistical approach is applied to investigate this effect, using data from Pakistan's energy and food price indices for the period between January 2019 and May 2023. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is employed to assess whether the time series is stationary, followed by the Granger causality test to determine if the energy price index can be used to predict changes in the food price index. The Engle-Granger cointegration test is used to identify long-term relationships between non-stationary time series. Additionally, various lag tests are conducted to determine the minimum time period within which changes in energy prices influence food prices. This research has practical implications for policymakers. Government agencies can use the findings to predict potential changes in food prices, and the study may also be relevant to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as shifts in food prices could directly or indirectly affect several SDGs.

The influence of price changes on consumption is believed to be enormous. This is because consumption expenditure constitutes a significant part of a consumer’s expenditure. For the household, the most important expenditure is on food items. This makes food price changes an important factor in predicting the direction of household consumption in Nigeria. While ffod price changes can be positive or negative, the effect of each on household consumption in Nigeria has not been empirically examined. This study, therefore examined the asymmetric effect of negative and positive changes in food prices on household consumption in Nigeria. The study utilized time series data for Nigeria over 1981 to 2020. The Non-linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lags Model (NARDL) was used to evaluate the asymmetric effects. The study found that food price changes whether positive or negative have no significant effect on household consumption in Nigeria. However, household income was found to have significant short-run and long-run positive effect on household consumption in Nigeria. The study recommends deliberate efforts by households and the government targeted at increasing the income of household so as to meet up with consumption demands.

There is still no consensus in academic debate about the impacts of food price changes on smallholder farmers' food and nutrition security. This paper aims to show how food price changes affect food and nutrition security of smallholder households in the Rajshahi district in north‐western Bangladesh. To better understand smallholders' adaptive capacity with respect to uncertainties regarding food price changes, it is crucial to look more closely at the decision‐making processes of smallholder households in their dual role as producers and consumers of food (prosumers). Smallholder farmers report in focus group discussions that they diversify their cropping practices to be more resilient against food price uncertainties. However, this strategy can be only successful if they are able to invest in inputs. Farmers face several constraints when seeking to make use of opportunities to sell diverse crops given their dependence on different types of local and regional buyers of food commodities. Furthermore, it becomes obvious that an increase in food prices does not automatically relate to an increase in farm‐gate prices.

This paper focuses on the estimation of changes in economic welfare (real income) on different Romanian socio-economic households due to changes in food prices, following the country’s accession to the European Union (EU) in 2007. It updates and develops Hubbard and Thomson (2007) and identifies the winners and losers due to food price changes using the most recent, official, post accession data. The Slutsky Compensating Variation, based on construction of Laspeyres indexes, is employed for a food basket of 19 products. Given the importance of the share of self-consumption in total household consumption expenditure for almost all household types, the economic welfare impacts of food price changes (Slutsky CV) is estimated for both market (goods purchased) and non-market (goods produced and consumed within the household) components. Preliminary results show that real food prices have changed quite dramatically with some rising and others falling. The overall change in price for the 19 selected products, in real terms, is almost 20 per cent. This suggests high impacts on consumer welfare across the urban and rural households, particularly for low-income groups such as farmers, unemployed and pensioners.

Objective:This study examined the relationship between reformulation and food price in Canadian packaged foods and beverages between 2017 and 2020.Design:Matched foods and beverages in the University of Toronto Food Label Information and Price 2017 and 2020 databases were analysed (n 5774). Price change by food category and by retailer were compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. The proportion of products with changes in calories and nutrient levels were determined, and mixed-effects models were used to examine the relationship between reformulation and price changes. The Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) nutrient profiling model was applied to calculate nutritional quality scores, and mixed-effects models were used to assess if changes in nutritional quality score were associated with price changes.Setting:Large grocery retailers by market share in Canada.Participants:Foods and beverages available in 2017 and 2020.Results:Food price changes differed by retailer and by food category (e.g. increased in Bakery, Snacks, etc; decreased in Beverages, Miscellaneous, etc.). Nutrient reformulation was minimal and bidirectional with the highest proportion of products changing in sodium (17·8 %; 8·4 % increased and 9·4 % decreased). The relationship between nutrient reformulation and price change was insignificant for all nutrients overall and was not consistent across food categories. Average FSANZ score did not change (7·5 in both years). For Legumes and Combination dishes, improvements in nutritional quality were associated with a price decrease and increase, respectively.Conclusions:Stronger policies are required to incentivise reformulation in Canada. Results do not provide evidence of reformulation impacting food prices.

Food products are the main concern for the government and people of Indonesia. Changes in food prices have significant effects on the welfare of the population. Covid-19 pandemic has significantly affected community activities and the food agribusiness system. This study analyzes patterns of changes in prices and marketing margins of seven main food products in Indonesian food consumption i.e. rice, shallots, garlic, red chillies, cayenne pepper, cooking oil, and sugar, after the Covid-19 pandemic by presenting descriptive statistics of daily food prices data from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPSN). Based on empirical results, except for shallots and cooking oil, most food prices at various market levels have fallen during the Covid-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the risk of food prices at various levels of the market has been increasing. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the magnitude and variability of marketing margins along the marketing chain also have been increasing. These findings imply the urgency of Institutional policies that can increase market transparency and competition appears to be more effective in the long term at reducing the price shocks caused by Covid-19 at various levels of the market than price interventions.

Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households

In this paper we challenge the conventional wisdom that the world’s poorest countries are also the most vulnerable to spikes in international food prices. We derive an inverted U-shaped relationship between food price transmission and the development level of a country from a theoretical model. This prediction is subsequently tested in two sets of regressions where economic development is approximated by per capita income and where we control for a number of other potential determinants of food price transmission. The first set of regressions is based on estimated transmission elasticities and the second on actual domestic food price changes during spikes in international food prices. In both sets of regressions we find strong evidence of the existence of an inverted U-shaped relation between food price transmission and income. Thus, food prices in middle income (rather than in low income) countries respond the strongest to changes in international food prices, implying that the poor in these countries are the most exposed to spikes in food prices. We also show that the factors explaining the variation in the estimated transmission elasticities can explain the variation in domestic food price changes during spikes in international food prices equally well.

To measure the relative change in price of healthier and less healthy foods over 10 years in New Zealand. Foods in the New Zealand food price index were classified as healthy and less healthy (WHO Europe Nutrient Profile Model) and by degree of processing (according to the NOVA classification). The change in price from February 2007 to January 2017 was analysed using a mixed model for repeated measures with healthiness (or level of processing), season and time added as covariates. Eighty-eight (of 155) relevant items had sufficient information on weight and healthiness. The trend of increasing food prices over time was similar for healthier and less healthy foods and between the three categories of processing. There was a statistically significant interaction (P = 0.014) between seasons and healthiness of foods, and seasons and degrees of processing (P < 0.001). The price of healthy foods and minimally processed foods fluctuated more by season compared to less healthy foods and processed foods. Food prices increased over time with no significant difference in the rate of change for healthier and less healthy foods, and between foods of different degrees of processing. This method can be used to routinely monitor relative changes in food prices according to healthiness.