Understanding the Effects of Influential Factors on Housing Prices by Combining Extreme Gradient Boosting and a Hedonic Price Model (XGBoost-HPM)

Abstract

The characteristics of housing and location conditions are the main drivers of spatial differences in housing prices, which is a topic attracting high interest in both real estate and geography research. One of the most popular models, the hedonic price model (HPM), has limitations in identifying nonlinear relationships and distinguishing the importance of influential factors. Therefore, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), a popular machine learning technology, and the HPM were combined to analyse the comprehensive effects of influential factors on housing prices. XGBoost was employed to identify the importance order of factors and HPM was adopted to reveal the value of the original non-market priced influential factors. The results showed that combining the two models can lead to good performance and increase understanding of the spatial variations in housing prices. Our work found that (1) the five most important variables for Shenzhen housing prices were distance to city centre, green view index, population density, property management fee and economic level; (2) space quality at the human scale had important effects on housing prices; and (3) some traditional factors, especially variables related to education, should be modified according to the development of the real estate market. The results showed that the demonstrated multisource geo-tagged data fusion framework, which integrated XGBoost and HPM, is practical and supports a comprehensive understanding of the relationships between housing prices and influential factors. The findings in this article provide essential implications for informing equitable housing policies and designing liveable neighbourhoods.