Understanding and solving probability problems: A developmental study

Abstract

Children's understanding of what variables and relations are important in problem structures, and their use of these variables and relations in problem solving, were examined. One hypothesis suggests that knowledge of relevant solution variables is a prerequisite for encoding those variables, which in turn is a prerequisite for learning new strategies that use those variables. An alternative hypothesis holds that knowledge of relevant variables is an outcome, rather than a precursor, of efforts to invent new strategies. In the current studies, children between the ages of 5 and 13 years were given Piaget and Inhelder's (1975, The origin of the idea of chance in children, New York: Norton) two-set, alternative choice probability problems. In Experiment 1, problem understanding was assessed by asking children to construct two-set problems that could test whether a learner understood how to solve a model problem type. In Experiment 2, understanding was assessed by asking children to modify model problems to make them harder for a learner to solve. In both experiments, children modified or reproduced only those properties of model problems used either correctly or incorrectly in solving the models. These results partially support both hypotheses, and suggest a mechanism by which problem solving knowledge develops.