Abstract
One of the most significant developments of the year 2018 was US President Trump's decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran Nuclear Deal, a multilateral agreement signed between Iran and China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany (P5+1). While the US has withdrawn from the deal and the other signatories to the deal are trying to keep Iran in the deal, Iran sees little return in remaining part of the deal. Hence, there is uncertainty about its survival. To study the future of JCPOA, the paper analyzes the future course of action of Iran, the EU and the US vis-à-vis the deal. It looks at US efforts to scuttle the deal, the internal and external pressures on Iran to abide or abandon the deal, and the EU's attempts to appease the US while keeping Iran in the deal. Furthermore, it looks at the bilateral relations between stakeholders and predicts the consequences of the course of action taken by each stakeholder.
Highlights
One of the most significant developments of the year 2018 was President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, negotiated by his predecessor government in 2015 between Iran and the UN Security Council’s permanent members—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany— known as the P5+1
One of the most significant developments of the year 2018 was US President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran Nuclear Deal, a multilateral agreement signed between Iran and China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany (P5+1)
On July 6, in partial breach of JCPOA, it opted for enriching uranium
Summary
One of the most significant developments of the year 2018 was President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, negotiated by his predecessor government in 2015 between Iran and the UN Security Council’s permanent members—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany— known as the P5+1. The shift in Washington’s Iran policy—from détente with Iran which led to landmark accord i.e. JCPOA, to the imposition of wide-ranging sanctions and international isolation—will shape a new strategic landscape and a balance of power in the region. It predicts the future of the Rouhani administration, Iran’s relations with the Arab world, and the emerging relations in the US, EU, and Iran triangle. The third part analyzes implications for Iran post-US exit, with debate on incentives for Iran to adhere to or withdraw from the deal It discusses the plausible course of action for Iran
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