Abstract
A probabilistic method is developed to optimise the design of an idealised composite wing through consideration of the uncertainties in the material properties, fibre direction angle and ply thickness. The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method is used to predict the mean, variance and Probability Density Function (PDF) of both the flutter speed and also the response to a “1 – cosine” gust, making use of an efficient Latin Hypercube sampling technique. 1-D, 2-D and 3-D polynomial chaos expansions are introduced into the probabilistic aeroelastic model for different combinations of material, fibre direction angle and ply thickness uncertainties. The results were compared with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and it was found that the PDFs obtained using 2 nd and 3 rd order PCE models compared well but required much less computation. A reliability criterion is defined, indicating the probability of failure due to both flutter and gust response, and is used to successfully determine the optimal robust design of the composite wing.
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