Abstract
The main conclusion to emerge is that in moving from a certain to an uncertain world, the optimal size of the import-competing sector does not fall. For the case of CU it will rise. For PU, whether it increases or not depends on the decision rule used and the ranking of probabilities. Similarly for RU, the form of the utility function and the probability distribution help to determine the size of the import-competing sector. From other simulations we have carried out, we are confident that our main conclusion is fairly robust for this model.
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