Abstract
AbstractThis paper focuses on the uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow inBeRiverCatchment. Uncertainty associated withGCMstructure from a subset ofCMIP3 (CCCMA CGCM3.1,CSIRO Mk30,IPSL CM4,MPI ECHAM5,NCAR CCSM3.0,UKMO HadGEM1, andUKMO HadCM3),SRESemission scenarios (A1B,A2,B1, andB2), and prescribed increases in global mean temperature (0.5°C to 6°C) usingSWATmodel is investigated. For prescribed warming scenarios usingHadCM3, linear decreases in mean annual streamflow range from 3.1 to 16.7%. Differences in projected annual streamflow betweenSRESemission scenarios usingHadCM3 are small (−5.6% to −4.6%). Under theA1Bscenario and 2°C increase in global mean temperature using sevenGCMs, there is substantial disparity, by −2.9–25.5% and −8.3–19.1%, respectively. It is generally reasonable to conclude thatGCMstructure‐related uncertainty is greater than that associated with the emission scenarios and climate sensitivity.
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